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Intervention as information: a survey

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Author Info
Richard T. Baillie
Owen F. Humpage
William P. Osterberg

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Abstract

Research has generally failed to find reliable connections between official exchange-market interventions and exchange rates that are consistent with either a monetary or a portfolio-balance theory of exchange-rate determination. Recently economists have suggested that intervention might sometimes influence exchange rates through its effects on agents’ expectations. This survey discusses newer research that analyzes informational aspects of intervention.

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File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/workpaper/1999/Wp9918.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 9918.

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Length: 1-26
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:9918

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Keywords: Foreign exchange - Law and legislation;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Takatosh Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1997. "Is there private information in the FX market? the Tokyo experiment," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Reeves, Silke Fabian, 1997. "Exchange rate management when sterilized interventions represent signals of monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 339-360. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Neil, Beattie & Fillion, Jean-François, 1999. "An Intraday Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Working Papers 99-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  6. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Weller, Paul, 1997. "The advantage to hiding one's hand: Speculation and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 251-277, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Robert Dittmar, 1997. "Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach," Working Papers 1996-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Klein, Michael W., 1993. "The accuracy of reports of foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 644-653, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. David A. Hsieh & Allan W. Kleidon, 1996. "Bid-Ask Spreads in Foreign Exchange Markets: Implications for Models of Asymmetric Information," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 41-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  13. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  14. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1993. "Does Central Bank Intervention Increase the Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. John B. Carlson & Jean M. McIntire & James B. Thomson, 1995. "Federal funds futures as an indicator of future monetary policy: a primer," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 20-30. [Downloadable!]
  16. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. repec:fth:michin:412 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Dominguez & K., 1997. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 412, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, 2003. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies: Results of a Survey," IMF Working Papers 03/95, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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