This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Federal Reserve as an informed foreign-exchange trader

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Owen F. Humpage
Abstract

U.S. exchange-market intervention has no apparent effect on market fundamentals but may influence expectations. If intervention can accurately forecast exchange-rate movements, knowledge that the Federal Reserve is trading can alter traders' prior estimates of the distribution of exchange-rate changes. This paper finds that U.S. intervention has value only as a forecast that recent exchange-rate movements will moderate but not that they will reverse.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/workpaper/1998/Wp9815.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 9815.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 22
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:9815

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1455 East 6th St., Cleveland OH 44114
Phone: 216.579.2000
Web page: http://www.clevelandfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Foreign exchange - Law and legislation;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Working Papers 96-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael W. Klein & Eric S. Rosengren, 1991. "Foreign exchange intervention as a signal of monetary policy," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 39-50.
  3. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Blake LeBaron, 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 5505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Owen F. Humpage, 1996. "U.S. intervention: assessing the probability of success," Working Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Leahy, Michael P, 1995. "The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 823-844, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller & Robert Dittmar, 1997. "Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach," Working Papers 1996-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2001. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 949-970, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  13. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? A tutorial is available.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.