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The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the EMS. The Post 1993 Experience

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  • Peter Brandner

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research)

  • Harald Grech
  • Helmut Stix

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Abstract

We analyze the effectiveness of intervention in the European Monetary System by using daily data on the DEM-intervention activity of six European central banks, covering the period from August 1993 to April 1998. To test for the influence of intervention we apply EGARCH models. To allow for regime specific intervention effects we also estimate Markov Switching autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. The results from the EGARCH models show that interventions influenced the conditional mean in only one case. Both volatility increasing and decreasing effects are found for the conditional variance. In the MS-ARCH model more effects on the mean are found. If significant, intervention tends to affect the level of the six ERM I exchange rates only in periods of low and medium volatility. For the conditional variance more volatility decreasing than increasing effects are found. Overall, given our approaches (EGARCH and MS-ARCH), the results show that even in the same institutional framework, intervention does not seem to affect the means and variances in a consistent and predictable manner.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 168.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 27 Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2001:i:168

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Keywords: The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the EMS. The Post 1993 Experience;

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Cited by:
  1. Lukas Menkhoff, 2008. "High-Frequency Analysis of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What do we learn?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2473, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Fatum, Rasmus & Pedersen, Jesper & Sørensen, Peter Norman, 2013. "The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 103-117.
  3. Yang, Jian & Su, Xiaojing & Kolari, James W., 2008. "Do Euro exchange rates follow a martingale? Some out-of-sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 729-740, May.
  4. Cynthia A. Lengnick-Hall & Robert J. Griffith, . "Knowledge Resources, Exploration, and Exploitation: A New Perspective on the Interplay Between Innovation and Application," Working Papers 0027, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
  5. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Nikkinen, Jussi & Vähämaa, Sami, 2009. "Central bank interventions and implied exchange rate correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 862-873, December.

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