U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success
AbstractThe martingale nature of exchange-rate changes insures that intervention often will appear successful in terms of altering or moderating exchange-rate movements, even if intervention were ineffective and undertaken randomly. I provide evidence that intervention generally lacks forecast value, except under a weak leaning-against-the-wind criterion. When I condition the probability of success by various aspects or techniques of intervention, however, I find that central-bank coordination and, to a lesser extent, large interventions increases the probability of success.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 31 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
Other versions of this item:
- Owen F. Humpage, 1996. "U.S. intervention: assessing the probability of success," Working Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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- William P. Osterberg & Rebecca Wetmore Humes, 1993. "The inaccuracy of newspaper reports of U.S. foreign exchange intervention," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 25-33.
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