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The influence of actual and unrequited interventions

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Author Info
Kathryn M. E. Dominguez (University of Michigan and NBER, USA)
Freyan Panthaki (Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics, UK)

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Abstract

Intervention operations are used by governments to manage their exchange rates but officials rarely confirm their presence in the market, leading inevitably to erroneous reports in the financial press. There are also reports of what we term, unrequited interventions, interventions that the market expects but do not materialize. In this paper we examine the effects of various types of intervention news on intra-day exchange rate behaviour. We find that unrequited interventions have a statistically significant influence on returns, volatility and order flow, suggesting that the expectation of intervention, even when governments do not intervene, can affect currency values. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.326
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 171-200
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:12:y:2007:i:2:p:171-200

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. DeGennaro, Ramon P. & Shrieves, Ronald E., 1997. "Public information releases, private information arrival and volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 295-315, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. " Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bauwens, Luc & Ben Omrane, Walid & Giot, Pierre, 2005. "News announcements, market activity and volatility in the euro/dollar foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1108-1125, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-39. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Naranjo, Andy & Nimalendran, M, 2000. "Government Intervention and Adverse Selection Costs in Foreign Exchange Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 453-77.
  7. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien & Lecourt, Christelle, 2003. "Official central bank interventions and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 891-911, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Breedon, Francis & Vitale, Paolo, 2004. "An Empirical Study of Liquidity and Information Effects of Order Flow on Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 317-341, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Priscilla Chiu, 2003. "Transparency versus constructive ambiguity in foreign exchange intervention," BIS Working Papers 144, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  13. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Humpage, Owen F, 1999. "U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 731-47, November.
  15. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. repec:rus:hseeco:21608 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 383-408, September. [Downloadable!]
  20. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Michel Beine & Agnes Benassy-Quere & Christelle Lecourt, 1999. "The impact of foreign exchange interventions: new evidence from FIGARCH estimations," Working Papers 1999-14, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  22. Popper, Helen & Montgomery, John D., 2001. "Information sharing and central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 295-316, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Shing-Yi B. Wang & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 784, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2008. "Automating Exchange Rate Target Zones: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "Do China and oil exporters influence major currency configurations?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 25, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lukas Menkhoff, 2008. "High-Frequency Analysis of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What do we learn?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rasmus Fatum, 2009. "Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective and Through Which Channel Does It Work?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2009. "Exchange Rate Management in Emerging Markets: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank communication and monetary policy - a survey of theory and evidence," Working Paper Series 898, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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