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Federal funds futures as an indicator of future monetary policy: a primer

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Author Info
John B. Carlson
Jean M. McIntire
James B. Thomson

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Abstract

An analysis of how federal funds futures markets are efficient processors of information concerning the future path of the fed funds rate and a discussion of some related implications for central-bank policymaking.

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File URL: http://clevelandfed.org/Research/Review/1995/95-q1-carlson.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1995)
Issue (Month): Q I ()
Pages: 20-30
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1995:i:qi:p:20-30

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Related research
Keywords: Federal funds market (United States) ; Futures ; Monetary policy;

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paolo Savona & Aurelio Maccario & Chiara Oldani, 2000. "On Monetary Analysis of Derivatives," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 149-175, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jeff Moore & Richard Austin, 2002. "The behavior of federal funds futures prices over the monetary policy cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 45-61. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rasmus Pilegaard & Alain Durre & Snorre Evjen, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Richard T. Baillie & Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1999. "Intervention as information: a survey," Working Paper 9918, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  5. Aleksandar Murdzhev & Marc Tomljanovich, 2006. "What Color is Alan Greenspan's Tie? How Central Bank Policy Announcements Have Changed Financial Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-593, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rasmus Fatum & Barry Scholnick, 2003. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1007, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
  7. Daniel L. Thornton, 1996. "Does the Fed's new policy of immediate disclosure affect the market?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 77-88. [Downloadable!]
  8. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., 1998. "Market reaction to monetary policy nonannouncements," Research Working Paper 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  9. Rasmus Fatum & Barry Scholnick, 2003. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-18, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Aug 2003. [Downloadable!]
  10. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2002. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Paper 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2004. "Forward-Looking Information in VAR Models and the Price Puzzle," Working Papers 10, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Rasmus Fatum & Barry Scholnick, . "Monetary Policy News and Exchange Rate Responses: Do Only Surprises Matter?," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-14, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
  14. O. David Gulley & Jahangir Sultan, 2003. "The link between monetary policy and stock and bond markets: evidence from the federal funds futures contract," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 199-209, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Doug Rolph, 1999. "Federal Funds Futures, Spot Rates, and Expected Changes in Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 853, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889. [Downloadable!]
  17. Brian Sack, 2002. "Extracting the expected path of monetary policy from futures rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  18. Gregory H. Bauer & Clara Vega, 2006. "The monetary origins of asymmetric information in international equity markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 872, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Predicting monetary policy using federal funds future prices," Working Paper Series 85, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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