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An Intraday Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention

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Author Info
Neil, Beattie
Fillion, Jean-François
Abstract

This paper assesses the effectiveness of Canada's official foreign exchange intervention in moderating intraday volatility of the Can$/US$ exchange rate, using a 2-1/2-year sample of 10-minute exchange rate data. The use of high frequency data (higher than daily frequency) should help in assessing the impact of intervention since the foreign exchange market is efficient and reacts rapidly to new information. The estimated equations explain volatility in terms of four major factors: intraday seasonal pattern; daily volatility persistence; macroeconomic news announcements; and the impact of central bank intervention. Rule-based (or expected) intervention apparently had no direct impact on the reduction of foreign exchange volatility, although the existence of a non-intervention band seemed to provide a small stabilizing influence. This result is interpreted to mean that the stabilizing effect of expected intervention came into play as the Canadian dollar approached the upper or lower limits of the band. When the dollar exceeded the band, actual intervention did not have any direct impact because it was expected. Moreover, the results show that discretionary (or unexpected) intervention might have been effective in stabilizing the Canadian dollar, although the impact of an intervention sequence diminished as it increased beyond a few days.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/1999/wp99-4.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 99-4.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:99-4

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rates; Financial markets;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
  7. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Richard T. Baillie & Owen F. Humpage, 1992. "Post-Louvre intervention: did target zones stabilize the dollar?," Working Paper 9203, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  12. Drost, Feike C. & Werker, Bas J. M., 1996. "Closing the GARCH gap: Continuous time GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 31-57, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Dacorogna, Michael M. & Muller, Ulrich A. & Nagler, Robert J. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V., 1993. "A geographical model for the daily and weekly seasonal volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 413-438, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Maurice Obstfeld, 1991. "The Effectiveness of Foreign-Exchange Intervention: Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 2796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. " Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2008. "Automating Exchange Rate Target Zones: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christopher J. Neely, 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and central bank intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading rule profits," Working Papers 2000-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jeff M. Rogers & Pierre Siklos, 2001. "Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Two Small Open Economies: The Canadian and Australian Experience," Research Paper Series 57, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Rasmus Fatum & Jesper Pedersen, 2007. "Real-Time Effects of Central Bank Interventions in the Euro Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 07-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Siklos, Pierre L., 2000. "Monetary policy transparency, public commentary, and market perceptions about monetary policy in Canada," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Chris D'Souza, 2002. "A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Canada," Working Papers 02-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2003. "When Do Central Bank Interventions Influence Intra-Daily and Longer-Term Exchange Rate Movements?," Working Papers 506, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," Working Papers 561, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Michael R. King & Rasmus Fatum, 2005. "The Effectiveness of Official Foreign Exchange Intervention in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Canadian Dollar," Working Papers 05-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  11. Richard T. Baillie & Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1999. "Intervention as information: a survey," Working Paper 9918, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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