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The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the EMS: The Post 1993 Experience

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Author Info
Peter Brandner () (Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung (WIFO))
Harald Grech () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)
Helmut Stix () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

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Abstract

We analyze the effectiveness of intervention in the European Monetary System by using daily data on the DEM-intervention activity of six European central banks, covering the period from August 1993 to April 1998. To test for the influence of intervention we apply EGARCH models. To allow for regime specific intervention effects we also estimate Markov Switching autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. The results from the EGARCH models show that interventions influenced the conditional mean in only one case. Both volatility increasing and decreasing effects are found for the conditional variance. In the MS-ARCH model more effects on the mean are found. If significant, intervention tends to affect the level of the six ERM I exchange rates only in periods of low and medium volatility. For the conditional variance more volatility decreasing than increasing effects are found. Overall, given our approaches (EGARCH and MS-ARCH), the results show that even in the same institutional framework, intervention does not seem to affect the means and variances in a consistent and predictable manner.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 55.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 03 Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:55

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign Exchange Intervention; European Monetary System; EGARCH; Markov Switching ARCH;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lukas Menkhoff, 2008. "High-Frequency Analysis of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What do we learn?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cynthia A. Lengnick-Hall & Robert J. Griffith, . "Knowledge Resources, Exploration, and Exploitation: A New Perspective on the Interplay Between Innovation and Application," Working Papers 0027, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio. [Downloadable!]
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