The Target Zone Model, Non-linearity and Mean Reversion: Is the Honeymoon Really Over?
Abstract
The authors estimate a target zone model for three ERM exchange rates for 1983-86 and 1987-91 by the method of simulated moments, taking account of the continuous time specification by using daily data with the interruptions of holidays and weekends. Specification tests are unable to reject the model. The estimates imply, however, an essentially linear relationship between the exchange rate and the fundamentals, with a very limited honeymoon effect. Using Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated on the estimates, the authors find that standard tests for mean reversion of the exchange rate would largely reject the target zone model when, in fact, it held.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 109 (1999)
Issue (Month): 454 (March)
Pages: C96-110
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:109:y:1999:i:454:p:c96-110
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2007.
"The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 803-822, 09.
- Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2006. "The optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility: A target zone approach," Working Papers 06.22, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
- Brandner, Peter & Grech, Harald & Stix, Helmut, 2006.
"The effectiveness of central bank intervention in the EMS: The post 1993 experience,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 580-597, June.
- Peter Brandner & Harald Grech & Helmut Stix, 2001. "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the EMS: The Post 1993 Experience," Working Papers 55, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Peter Brandner & Harald Grech & Helmut Stix, 2001. "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the EMS. The Post 1993 Experience," WIFO Working Papers 168, WIFO.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006.
"A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 579-609.
- Timo Terasvirta, 2004. "A Time Series Model for an Exchange Rate in a Target Zone with Applications," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 340, Econometric Society.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2003. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 533, Stockholm School of Economics.
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