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Testing the Bounds: Empirical Behavior of Target Zone Fundamentals

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Author Info
J. Isaac Miller () (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia)

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Abstract

Standard target zone exchange rate models are based on nonlinear functions of an unobserved economic fundamental, which is assumed to be bounded, similarly to the target zone exchange rates themselves. A violation of this key assumption is a basic structural reason for model failure. Using a novel estimation and testing strategy, we show it is also a testable assumption. Our empirical results cast serious doubt on its validity in practice, providing a primitive reason for well-documented rejections of the basic model. Model failure from this violation is robust to otherwise ideal circumstances (e.g., perfect credibility).

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Missouri in its series Working Papers with number 0803.

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Length: 18 pgs.
Date of creation: 07 Apr 2008
Date of revision: 15 Apr 2009
Handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:0803

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Related research
Keywords: target zone exchange rates; economic fundamental; unscented Kalman filter; rescaled range statistic;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Target Zones: A Bumpy Road towards a Honeymoon - Some Evidence from the ERM, ERM2 and Selected New EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J., 1995. "EMS exchange rate bands: a Monte Carlo investigation of three target zone models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 311-328, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1991. "The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1367-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2005. "The Income Elasticity of Money Demand: A Meta-Analysis of Empirical Results *," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 513-533, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. J. Isaac Miller, 2007. "Cointegrating Regressions with Messy Regressors: Missingness, Mixed Frequency, and Measurement Error," Working Papers 0722, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 15 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  14. Giuseppe Cavaliere, 2005. "Testing mean reversion in target-zone exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(20), pages 2335-2347, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Taylor, Mark P. & Iannizzotto, Matteo, 2001. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: a cautionary note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 117-129, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park, 2008. "Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity, and Thick Tails: How They Interact to Generate Persistency in Memory," Working Papers 0801, Department of Economics, University of Missouri. [Downloadable!]
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