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A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications

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  • Lundbergh, Stefan
  • Terasvirta, Timo

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a flexible target zone model that is capable of characterizing the dynamic behaviour of an exchange rate implied by the original target zone model of Krugman (1991) and its modifications. Our framework also enables the modeller to estimate an implicit target zone if it exists. A modelling cycle consisting of specification, estimation, and evaluation stages is constructed. The model is fitted to series of daily observations of the Swedish and Norwegian currency indices and the estimated models are evaluated.
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  • Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "A time series model for an exchange rate in a target zone with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 579-609.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:131:y:2006:i:1-2:p:579-609
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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