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Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Australia

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Author Info
Jonathan Kearns (Reserve Bank of Australia)
Roberto Rigobon (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and National Bureau of Economic Research)

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Abstract

The endogeneity of exchange rates and intervention has long plagued studies of the effectiveness of central banks’ actions in foreign exchange markets. Researchers have either excluded contemporaneous intervention so that their explanators are predetermined, or obtained a small, and typically incorrectly signed, coefficient on contemporaneous intervention. Failing to account for the endogeneity, when central banks lean against the wind and trade strategically, will likely result in a large downward bias to the coefficient on contemporaneous intervention - explaining the negative coefficient frequently obtained. We use an alternative identification assumption - a change in the intervention policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia - that allows us to estimate, using simulated Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), a model that includes the contemporaneous impact of intervention. There are three main results. Our point estimates suggest that central bank intervention has an economically significant contemporaneous effect. A US$100 million purchase of the domestic currency will appreciate the exchange rate by 1.3 to 1.8 per cent. This estimate is remarkably similar to the calibration conducted by Dominguez and Frankel (1993c), who themselves noted their estimate was larger than previous empirical findings. Secondly, the vast majority of the effect of an intervention on the exchange rate is found to occur during the day in which it is conducted, with only a smaller impact on subsequent days. Finally, we confirm findings that Australian central bank intervention policy can be characterised as leaning against the wind.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2003-04.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2003-04

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Related research
Keywords: central bank intervention foreign exchange rate markets heteroskedasticity identification

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Occasional Interventions to Target Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 691-715, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kim, Suk-Joong & Kortian, Tro & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2000. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility -- Australian evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 381-405, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Working Papers 96-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    Other versions:
  5. Jeff M. Rogers & Pierre Siklos, 2001. "Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Two Small Open Economies: The Canadian and Australian Experience," Research Paper Series 57, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 25-45, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, . "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-13, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  10. Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Technical analysis and the profitability of U.S. foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-17. [Downloadable!]
  11. Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," NBER Working Papers 7751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Almekinders, Geert J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W., 1996. "A friction model of daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1365-1380, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. " Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. repec:rus:hseeco:21608 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "On the effects of sterilized intervention : An analysis of weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-150, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eric Hillebrand & Gunther Schnabl & Yasemin Ulu, 2006. "Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: A Simultaneous Equations Approach Using Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  2. Oscar Bernal, 2006. "Do interactions between political authorities and central banks influence FX interventions? Evidence from Japan," Working Papers DULBEA 06-03.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
  3. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170. [Downloadable!]
  4. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Critical Appraisal of Recent Developments in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "The case for foreign exchange intervention: the government as an active reserve manager," Working Papers 2004-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Oscar Bernal & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2007. "Talks, financial operations or both? Generalizing central banks’ FX reaction functions," Working Papers DULBEA 07-03.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
  7. Kevin Cowan & David Rappoport & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "High Frequency Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 433, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michel Beine & Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Impact of FX Central Bank Intervention in a Noise Trading Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michel Beine & Oscar Bernal, 2005. "Why do central banks intervene secretly? Preliminary evidence from the BoJ," Working Papers DULBEA 05-09.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
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