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Real-Time Effects of Central Bank Interventions in the Euro Market

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  • Rasmus Fatum

    (University of Alberta)

  • Jesper Pedersen

    (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

This paper investigates the real-time effects of foreign exchange intervention using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Denmark is currently pursuing an active intervention policy under the provisions of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) and intervenes on a discretionary basis when considered necessary. Prior participation in ERM II is a requirement for adoption of the Euro. Therefore, our study is of particular relevance for the new European Union member states that are either currently participating in ERM II or expected to do so at a later date as well as for Denmark. Our analysis employs the two-step weighted least squares estimation procedure of Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Vega (2003) and an array of robustness tests. We find that intervention exerts a statistically and economically significant influence on exchange rate returns when the direction of intervention is consistent with fundamentals and intervention is carried out during a period of high exchange rate volatility. We also show that the exchange rate does not adjust instantaneously to the unannounced and discretionary interventions under study. We conclude that intervention can be an important short-term policy instrument for exchange rate management.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 07-01.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:07-01

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Keywords: foreign exchange intervention; intraday data; ERM II;

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References

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  1. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  2. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Paper 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Dacorogna, Michael M. & Muller, Ulrich A. & Nagler, Robert J. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V., 1993. "A geographical model for the daily and weekly seasonal volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 413-438, August.
  4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  5. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 2005-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
  7. Owen F. Humpage, 1996. "U.S. intervention: assessing the probability of success," Working Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-76, October.
  9. Charles Goodhart & Takatoshi Ito & Richard Payne, 1996. "One Day in June 1993: A Study of the Working of the Reuters 2000-2 Electronic Foreign Exchange Trading System," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 107-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Dominguez & K., 1997. "The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 412, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  11. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
  12. Fischer, Andreas M., 2006. "On the inadequacy of newswire reports for empirical research on foreign exchange interventions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1226-1240, December.
  13. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
  14. Naranjo, Andy & Nimalendran, M, 2000. "Government Intervention and Adverse Selection Costs in Foreign Exchange Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 453-77.
  15. Alvaro Almeida & Richard Payne & Charles Goodhart, 1997. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behaviour," FMG Discussion Papers dp258, Financial Markets Group.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:867-890 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Rasmus Fatum & Pavel Vacek, 2010. "Does Foreign Exchange Reserve Decumulation Lead to Currency Appreciation?," EPRU Working Paper Series 2010-06, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Rasmus Fatum & Jesper Pedersen & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2010. "Are the intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads asymmetric and state dependent?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 59, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  4. Mark P. Taylor & Stefan Reitz, 2013. "Exchange Rates in Target Zones - Evidence from the Danish Krone," Kiel Working Papers 1827, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Urosevic, 2011. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Working papers 18, National Bank of Serbia.
  6. Rasmus Fatum, 2009. "Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective, and through Which Channel Does It Work?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 75-98, November.
  7. Charles Engel, 2009. "Exchange rate policies," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Nov.
    • Charles Engel, 2010. "Exchange rate policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 229-250 Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2009. "Exchange Rate Management in Emerging Markets: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series 2656, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Lukas Menkhoff, 2008. "High-Frequency Analysis of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What do we learn?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2473, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Fatum, Rasmus & Pedersen, Jesper & Sørensen, Peter Norman, 2013. "The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 103-117.
  11. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2008. "Automating Exchange Rate Target Zones: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series 2221, CESifo Group Munich.

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