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Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?

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  • Graciela Kaminsky
  • Karen K. Lewis

Abstract

A frequently cited explanation for why sterilized interventions may affect exchange rates is that these interventions signal central banks' future monetary policy intentions. This explanation presumes that central banks in fact back up interventions with subsequent changes in monetary policy. We empirically examine this hypothesis using data on market observations of U.S. intervention together with monetary policy variables, and exchange rates. We strongly reject the hypothesis that interventions convey no signal. However, we also find that in some episodes, intervention signaled changes in monetary policy in the opposite direction of the conventional signaling story. This finding can explain why in some periods exchange rates moved in the opposite direction of that suggested by intervention.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4298.

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Date of creation: Mar 1993
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Publication status: published as Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 37, no. 2, (April 1996), pp. 285-312.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4298

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  1. Mishkin, Frederie S., 1981. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates : An efficient markets approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-55.
  2. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-53, May.
  3. Graciela Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 4298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Michael W. Klein, 1992. "The Accuracy of Reports of Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 4165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Martin Eichenbaum & Lawrence J. Christiano, 1992. "Liquidity Effects, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 4129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Loopesko, Bonnie E., 1984. "Relationships among exchange rates, intervention, and interest rates: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-277, December.
  7. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1989. "Market Responses To Coordinated Central Bank Intervention," NBER Working Papers 3192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  9. Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 1992. "Intervention and the foreign exchange risk premium: An empirical investigation of daily effects," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 23-50.
  10. Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-72, June.
  11. Cochrane, John H, 1989. "The Return of the Liquidity Effect: A Study of the Short-run Relation between Money Growth and Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 75-83, January.
  12. Lewis, Karen K., 1988. "Testing the portfolio balance model: A multi-lateral approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 109-127, February.
  13. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  14. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. " Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
  15. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  16. Steven Strongin, 1992. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances: explaining the liquidity puzzle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  17. Reichenstein, William, 1987. "The Impact of Money on Short-term Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(1), pages 67-82, January.
  18. Melvin, Michael, 1983. "The Vanishing Liquidity Effect of Money on Interest: Analysis and Implications for Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(2), pages 188-202, April.
  19. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
  20. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  21. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
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