IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/3670.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Intramarginal Intervention in the EMS and the Target-Zone Model of Exchange-Rate Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Kathryn M. Dominguez
  • Peter B. Kenen

Abstract

Empirical work on exchange-rate behavior under a target-zone regime has used data produced by the European Monetary System (ENS) and has found that the data contradict important predictions made by the standard target-zone model. We argue that the contradictions reflect a misinterpretation of policies pursued by the ENS countries. They intervened intramarginally, to keep exchange rates well within the target zone, rather then intervening at the edges of the zone to prevent rates from crossing them. In the Besle-Nyborg Agreement of 1987, however, the ENS countries agreed to make fuller use of the band, and the effects of the agreement show up strongly in the data. Exchange rates behave differently after the agreement than they did before. The effect appears clearly in the behavior of the French franc and less decisively in the behavior of the Italian lira. The paper concludes by examining and rejecting alternative explanations for the observed differences in exchange-rate behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn M. Dominguez & Peter B. Kenen, 1991. "Intramarginal Intervention in the EMS and the Target-Zone Model of Exchange-Rate Behavior," NBER Working Papers 3670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3670
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3670.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1991. "The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1367-1372.
    2. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
    3. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1988. "Exchange Rate Bands And Realignments In A Stationary Stochastic Setting," Economic Research Papers 268344, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    4. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    5. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    7. Dominguez, Kathryn Mary, 1990. "Market responses to coordinated central bank intervention," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-163, January.
    8. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
    9. Pesenti, P.A., 1990. "Perforate And Imperforate Currency Bands: Exchange Rate Management And The Term Structure Of Interest Rate Differentials," Papers 626, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    10. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
    11. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 2017. "A Guide to Target Zones," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 5, pages 165-206, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Klein, Michael W. & Lewis, Karen K., 1993. "Learning about intervention target zones," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 275-295, November.
    13. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-536, June.
    14. Mr. Owen Evens & Mr. Thomas H. Mayer & Mr. Philip M Young & Horst Ungerer, 1986. "The European Monetary System: Recent Developments," IMF Occasional Papers 1986/007, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Kenen, Peter B, 1987. "Exchange Rate Management: What Role for Intervention?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 194-199, May.
    16. Paul R. Krugman, 1987. "Trigger Strategies and Price Dynamics in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 2459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech, 2002. "Why did Central Banks Intervene in the EMS? The Post 1993 Experience," Working Papers 77, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    2. van de Gucht, Linda M. & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 191-220, April.
    3. Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia, 1999. "Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2000004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    4. Su Zhou & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali M. Kutan, 2008. "Purchasing Power Parity before and after the Adoption of the Euro," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(1), pages 134-150, April.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Anthony, Myrvin L., 1997. "Exchange rate behaviour under the EMS regime: was there any systematic change?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-560, August.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 21427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lera, Sandro Claudio & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "Quantitative modelling of the EUR/CHF exchange rate during the target zone regime of September 2011 to January 2015," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 28-47.
    9. Peter P. Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2017. "FX options in target zones," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1477-1486, October.
    10. Pill, Huw, 1996. "Evaluating target zone models in EMS data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 199-204, August.
    11. Adler, Gustavo & Lisack, Noëmie & Mano, Rui C., 2019. "Unveiling the effects of foreign exchange intervention: A panel approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech, 2002. "Why Did Central Banks Intervene in the EMS? The Post-1993 Experience," WIFO Working Papers 192, WIFO.
    13. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    14. Flandreau, Marc, 1998. "The burden of intervention: externalities in multilateral exchange rates arrangements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 137-171, June.
    15. Gabauer, David, 2021. "Dynamic measures of asymmetric & pairwise connectedness within an optimal currency area: Evidence from the ERM I system," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Torres, Jose L., 2000. "Stochastic intramarginal interventions in target zones," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 249-262, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 247-268, April.
    2. Antoine Magnier, 1992. "Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 87-113.
    3. Jean-Pierre Laffargue & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, 1992. "Anticipations stabilisatrices dans un système de serpent monétaire. Théorie et application au système monétaire européen," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(6), pages 1107-1128.
    4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
    5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
    6. Lai, Ching-chong & Fang, Chung-rou & Chang, Juin-jen, 2008. "Volatility trade-offs in exchange rate target zones," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 366-379.
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
    8. Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
    9. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2008. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in a Target Zone: The Portuguese Case," GEMF Working Papers 2008-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    10. Peter P. Carr & Zura Kakushadze, 2017. "FX options in target zones," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1477-1486, October.
    11. Patrick Artus, 1992. "Passage à l'union économique et monétaire en Europe : effets sur la croissance et les politiques budgétaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 123-137.
    12. Lewis, Karen K, 1996. "Stochastic Regime Switching and Stabilizing Policies within Regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(2), pages 71-85, April.
    13. Jess Rodr?uez L?ez & Hugo Rodr?uez Mendiz?al, 2002. "On the Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime: Target Zones Revisited," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 518.02, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 1996. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with jumps," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 111, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Vajanne, Laura, . "The Exchange Rate Under Target Zones," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 16.
    16. Beetsma, Roel M. W. J., 1995. "EMS exchange rate bands: a Monte Carlo investigation of three target zone models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 311-328, April.
    17. Sandun Perera & Winston Buckley, 2017. "On the existence and uniqueness of the optimal central bank intervention policy in a forex market with jumps," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(8), pages 877-885, August.
    18. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2007. "The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 803-822, September.
    19. Mizrach, Bruce, 1995. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-657, October.
    20. Bernard Dumas & Lars Peter Jennergren & Bertil Näslund, 1992. "Currency option pricing in credible target zones," Working Papers hal-00611601, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3670. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.