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Intramarginal Intervention in the EMS and the Target-Zone Model of Exchange-Rate Behavior

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  • Kathryn M. Dominguez
  • Peter B. Kenen

Abstract

Empirical work on exchange-rate behavior under a target-zone regime has used data produced by the European Monetary System (ENS) and has found that the data contradict important predictions made by the standard target-zone model. We argue that the contradictions reflect a misinterpretation of policies pursued by the ENS countries. They intervened intramarginally, to keep exchange rates well within the target zone, rather then intervening at the edges of the zone to prevent rates from crossing them. In the Besle-Nyborg Agreement of 1987, however, the ENS countries agreed to make fuller use of the band, and the effects of the agreement show up strongly in the data. Exchange rates behave differently after the agreement than they did before. The effect appears clearly in the behavior of the French franc and less decisively in the behavior of the Italian lira. The paper concludes by examining and rejecting alternative explanations for the observed differences in exchange-rate behavior.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3670.

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Date of creation: Apr 1991
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Publication status: published as European Economic Review 36, pp. 1523-1532 (1992).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3670

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "Does foreign exchange intervention matter? disentangling the portfolio and expectations effects for the mark," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  4. Bertola, G. & Svensson, L.E., 1990. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," Papers 481, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1989. "Exchange Rate Bands and Realignments in a Stationary Stochastic Setting," CEPR Discussion Papers 299, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Klein, Michael W. & Lewis, Karen K., 1993. "Learning about intervention target zones," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 275-295, November.
  7. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1989. "Market Responses To Coordinated Central Bank Intervention," NBER Working Papers 3192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 1986. "A Guide to Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 2113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Pesenti, P.A., 1990. "Perforate And Imperforate Currency Bands: Exchange Rate Management And The Term Structure Of Interest Rate Differentials," Papers 626, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  10. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977 Elsevier.
  11. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1991. "The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1367-72, November.
  12. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
  13. Kenen, Peter B, 1987. "Exchange Rate Management: What Role for Intervention?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 194-99, May.
  14. Paul R. Krugman, 1987. "Trigger Strategies and Price Dynamics in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 2459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. repec:fth:coluec:460 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Torres, Jose L., 2000. "Stochastic intramarginal interventions in target zones," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 249-262, December.
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech, 2002. "Why did Central Banks Intervenein the EMS? The Post 1993 Experience," Working Papers 77, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  4. Flandreau, Marc, 1996. "The Burden of Intervention: Externalities in Multilateral Exchange Rates Arrangements," CEPR Discussion Papers 1504, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech, 2002. "Why Did Central Banks Intervene in the EMS? The Post-1993 Experience," WIFO Working Papers 192, WIFO.
  6. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2010. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey of the Literature," GEMF Working Papers 2010-14, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  7. Gucht, L. van de & Dekimpe, M.G. & Kwok, C., 1996. "Persistence in foreign exchange rates," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-358837, Tilburg University.
  8. Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia, 1999. "Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  9. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Anthony, Myrvin L., 1997. "Exchange rate behaviour under the EMS regime: was there any systematic change?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-560, August.
  10. Pill, Huw, 1996. "Evaluating target zone models in EMS data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 199-204, August.

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