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Currency Option Pricing in Credible Target Zones

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  • Bernard Dumas
  • L. Peter Jennergren
  • Bertil Naslund

Abstract

This paper develops a model for valuing options on a currency which is maintained within a band. The starting point of our model is the well known Krugman model for exchange-rate behavior within a target zone. Results from model runs provide insight into evidence reported by other authors of mispricing of currency options by extensions of the Black-Scholes model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Dumas & L. Peter Jennergren & Bertil Naslund, 1993. "Currency Option Pricing in Credible Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 4522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4522
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1991. "The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1367-1372.
    2. Delgado, Francisco & Dumas, Bernard, 1993. "Monetary contracting between central banks and the design of sustainable exchange-rate zones," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 201-224, May.
    3. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
    4. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712.
    5. Eduardo R. Borensztein & Michael P. Dooley, 1987. "Options on Foreign Exchange and Exchange Rate Expectations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(4), pages 643-680, December.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    7. Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
    8. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
    9. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    10. Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, "undated". "Monetary Contracting between Central Banks and the Design of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones (Reprint 035)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "Target zones and interest rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 27-54, August.
    12. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1, March.
    13. Lindberg, H. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Testing the Basic Target Zone Model on Swedish Data," Papers 488, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    14. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    15. Philippe Jorion, 1988. "On Jump Processes in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 427-445.
    16. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
    17. Lindbecg, H. Soderlind, P., 1992. "Target Zone Models and the Intervention Policy; The Swedish Case," Papers 496, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    18. Krugman,Paul & Miller,Marcus (ed.), 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521435260.
    19. Bodurtha, James N. & Courtadon, Georges R., 1987. "Tests of an American Option Pricing Model on the Foreign Currency Options Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 153-167, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Mordecai Avriel & Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv, 2013. "Inflation Derivatives Under Inflation Target Regimes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(10), pages 911-938, October.
    3. Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
    4. Malz, Allan M., 1996. "Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: the case of sterling-mark," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 717-748, October.
    5. Naszódi, Anna, 2002. "A sávos árfolyamú deviza megközelítése opciók segítségével [The option-based description of the exchange rate in a target-zone system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 25-44.
    6. Ekvall, Niklas & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1997. "Currency option pricing with mean reversion and uncovered interest parity: A revision of the Garman-Kohlhagen model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 41-59, July.
    7. Naszódi, Anna, 2004. "A sáveltolás árfolyamhatásának vizsgálata opciós modell keretei között [Target-zone rearrangement and exchange-rate behaviour in an options-based model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 638-658.
    8. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2000. "The Effectiveness of the FX Market Interventions of the Bundesbank During the Louvre Period: An Options-Based Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 971, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Fathi Abid & Moncef Habibi, 2010. "Hedging Transaction Exposure within the Context of a Basket Foreign Exchange Rate Arrangement," Working Papers 523, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Jan 2010.
    10. Dibeh, Ghassan, 2006. "Target zone dynamics where the fundamental follows a SDE with periodic forcing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 363(2), pages 437-445.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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