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Establishing credibility: evolving perceptions of the European Central Bank

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Linda S. Goldberg
Michael W. Klein

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Abstract

The perceptions of a central bank's inflation aversion may reflect institutional structure or, more dynamically, the history of its policy decisions. In this paper, we present a novel empirical framework that uses high-frequency data to test for persistent variation in market perceptions of central bank inflation aversion. The first years of the European Central Bank (ECB) provide a natural experiment for this model. Tests of the effect of news announcements on the slope of yield curves in the euro area and on the euro-dollar exchange rate suggest that the market's perception of the policy stance of the ECB evolved significantly during the first six years of the Bank's operation, with a belief in its inflation aversion increasing in the wake of its monetary tightening. In contrast, tests based on the response of the slope of the U.S. yield curve to news offer no comparable evidence of any change in market perceptions of the inflation aversion of the Federal Reserve.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 231.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:231

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Keywords: Banks and banking Central Inflation (Finance) Monetary policy European Central Bank

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  1. P. Siklos, M. Bohl, 2006. "Policy Words and Policy Deeds: The ECB and the Euro," Working Papers eg0050, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Macedo, Jorge Braga de & Pereira, Luis Brites, 2006. "The Credibility of Cabo Verde’s Currency Peg," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp494, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Carsten Hefeker, 2006. "EMU Enlargement, Policy Uncertainty and Economic Reforms," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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