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Exchange Rate Manipulation And Constructive Ambiguity

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  • Ricardo T. Fernholz

Abstract

I consider dynamic models in which investors are heterogeneously informed about both foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate fundamentals and show that transparency sometimes exacerbates misalignment between the exchange rate and fundamentals. Although transparency reveals information about fundamentals, it also increases the precision of the exchange rate as a signal of those fundamentals that remain unknown (the signal‐precision effect of transparency). If a central bank announcement reveals little information about fundamentals, then this effect dominates and transparency magnifies misalignment. One implication is that ambiguity can increase the effectiveness of intervention to support a declining currency during times of crisis.

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  • Ricardo T. Fernholz, 2015. "Exchange Rate Manipulation And Constructive Ambiguity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1323-1348, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:56:y:2015:i:4:p:1323-1348
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12139
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