Dynamic higher order expectations
AbstractIn models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to form higher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper develops a tractable framework for solving and analyzing linear dynamic rational expectations models in which privately informed agents form higher order expectations. The framework is used to demonstrate that the well-known problem of the infinite regress of expectations identified by Townsend (1983) can be approximated to an arbitrary accuracy with a finite dimensional representation under quite general conditions. The paper is constructive and presents a fixed point algorithm for finding an accurate solution and provides weak conditions that ensure that a fixed point exists. To help intuition, Singleton's (1987) asset pricing model with disparately informed traders is used as a vehicle for the paper.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1118.
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision: Mar 2011
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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/
Dynamic Higher Order Expectations; Private Information; Asset Pricing;
Other versions of this item:
- Kristoffer Nimark, 2007. "Dynamic Higher Order Expectations," 2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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- Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August.
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