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Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek

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  • Giovanni Cespa
  • Xavier Vives

Abstract

We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing equilibrium model with long-term investors. We argue that the fact that prices can score worse or better than consensus opinion in predicting the fundamentals is a product of endogenous short-term speculation. For a given, positive level of residual payoff uncertainty, if noise trade displays low persistence rational investors act like market makers, accommodate the order flow, and prices are farther away from fundamentals compared to consensus. This defines a “Keynesian” region; the complementary region is “Hayekian” in that rational investors chase the trend and prices are systematically closer to fundamentals than average expectations. The standard case of no residual uncertainty and noise trading following a random walk is on the frontier of the two regions and identifies the set of deep parameters for which rational investors abide by Keynes’ dictum of concentrating on an asset “long term prospects and those only.” The analysis explains how accommodation and trend chasing strategies differ from momentum and reversal phenomena because of the different information sets that investors and an outside observer have.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2839.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2839

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Keywords: efficient market hypothesis; long and short-term trading; average expectations; higher order beliefs; over-reliance on public information; opaqueness; momentum; reversal;

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References

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  1. Kristoffer Nimark, 2007. "Dynamic higher order expectations," Economics Working Papers 1118, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2011.
  2. Biais, Bruno & Bossaerts, Peter, 1998. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume in a Beauty Contest," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 307-40, April.
  3. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February.
  4. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
  5. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  7. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2010. "Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity," Working Papers 2072/151544, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  8. Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2008. "An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," NBER Working Papers 14523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Philippe BACCHETTA & Eric VAN WINCOOP, 2004. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," FAME Research Paper Series rp110, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  10. Cespa, Giovanni & Foucault, Thierry, 2008. "Insiders-outsiders, transparency and the value of the ticker," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/39, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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  12. Cespa, Giovanni, 2002. "Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1645-1670, October.
  13. Vives, Xavier, 1995. "Short-Term Investment and the Informational Efficiency of the Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 125-60.
  14. Jayant Vivek Ganguli & Liyan Yang, 2009. "Complementarities, Multiplicity, and Supply Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 90-115, 03.
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  16. Hua He and Jiang Wang., 1993. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-228, University of California at Berkeley.
  17. Vives, Xavier, 1997. "Learning from Others: A Welfare Analysis," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-200, August.
  18. Peter Kondor, 2004. "Rational trader risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24646, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  19. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752.
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  21. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Spiegel, Matthew, 1991. "Insiders, Outsiders, and Market Breakdowns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 255-82.
  22. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2009. "Aggregation of Information and Beliefs: Asset Pricing Lessons from Prediction Markets," Discussion Papers 09-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  23. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-57, May.
  24. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  25. Luis Angel Medrano & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Regulating Insider Trading When Investment Matters," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 199-277.
  26. David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Finance 0207017, EconWPA.
  27. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  28. Cho, Jin-Wan & Krishnan, Murugappa, 2000. "Prices as Aggregators of Private Information: Evidence from S&P 500 Futures Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(01), pages 111-126, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kristoffer Nimark, 2009. "Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates," Economics Working Papers 1194, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2012.
  2. Jianjun Miao & Rui Albuquerque, 2008. "Advance Information and Asset Prices," 2008 Meeting Papers 44, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Allen, Franklin & Vayanos, Dimitri & Vives, Xavier, 2014. "Introduction to financial economics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-14.
  4. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Wall Street and Silicon Valley: A Delicate Interaction," NBER Working Papers 13475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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