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The Beauty Contest and Short-Term Trading

Author

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  • Giovanni Cespa

    (Cass Business School, CEPR, and CSEF)

  • Xavier Vives

    (IESE Business School)

Abstract

Short-termism need not breed informational price inefficiency even when generating Beauty Contests. We demonstrate this claim in a two-period market with persistent liquidity trading and risk-averse, privately informed, short-term investors and find that prices reect average expectations about fundamentals and liquidity trading. Informed investors engage in "retrospective" learning to reassess inferences (about fundamentals) made during the trading game's early stages. This behavior introduces strategic complementarities in the use of information and can yield two stable equilibria that can be ranked in terms of liquidity, volatility, and informational efficiency. We derive implications that explain market anomalies as well as empirical regularities.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2014. "The Beauty Contest and Short-Term Trading," CSEF Working Papers 383, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:383
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price speculation; multiple equilibria; average expectations; public information; momentum and reversal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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