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The more we know, the less we agree: public announcements and higher-order expectations

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  • Peter Kondor

Abstract

The stylized fact that public announcements in financial markets are followed by intense trading, high trading volume and volatile prices, is widely perceived as the sign of increasing disagreement due to the announcement. However, it is common to argue that this would be inconsistent with Bayesian-learning and common priors. In this paper, we not only show that — with certain information structures — increasing disagreement is possible in a Bayesian model, but we also argue that with the assumption that traders trade for resale — so they try to second guess future traders’ guesses — there are information structures which are simple, intuitive and plausible and result in increasing disagreement even in a standard, multi-period Grossman—Stiglitz model.

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File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/24645/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 24645.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:24645

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Related research

Keywords: Confirmatory bias; Public announcements; Trading volume; Higher-order expectations; Short-term traders;

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References

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  1. Klaus Adam, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 263, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Paul R. Milgrom, 1981. "Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 380-391, Autumn.
  3. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September.
  5. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980, September.
  6. Christian Hellwig, 2002. "Public Announcements, Adjustment Delays, and the Business Cycle (November 2002)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 208, UCLA Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tilman Borgers & Angel Hernando-Veciana & Daniel Krahmer, 2007. "When are signals complements or substitutes?," Economics Working Papers we072111, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  2. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2008. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," CSEF Working Papers 191, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  3. András Simonovits, 2006. "Social Security Reform in the US: Lessons from Hungary," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0602, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, revised 24 Apr 2006.
  4. Baeriswyl, Romain, 2007. "Central Bank's Action and Communication," Discussion Papers in Economics 1381, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  5. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The Influence of Actual and Unrequited Interventions," NBER Working Papers 12953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Iván Major, 2006. "Why do (or do not) banks share customer information? A comparison of mature private credit markets and markets in transition," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0603, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, revised 24 Apr 2006.

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