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The more we know, the less we agree: Higher-order expectations and public announcements

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  • Péter Kondor

    (Central European University)

Abstract

Polarization of opinions after public announcement is widely observed, but often considered to be inconsistent with Bayesian learning. I show that this is not the case in environments where higher-order expectations play a role. I characterize informational structures where public announcement leads to polarization in all higher-order expectations, but not in first-order expectations. To illustrate the economic consequences, I modify two workhorse models of asymmetric information. I show in a Morris-Shin(1998) model that more disclosure of public information can increase the chance of successful currency attacks. I show in a dynamic Grossman-Stiglitz(1980) model that hectic trading around public announcements is consistent with common priors and Bayesian learning.

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File URL: http://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2009/paper_1018.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2009 Meeting Papers with number 1018.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:1018

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  1. Adam, Klaus, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/12, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Iván Werning & George-Marios Angeletos, 2006. "Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity, and Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1720-1736, December.
  3. Peter Kondor, 2004. "Rational trader risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24646, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Aleh Tsyvinski & Arijit Mukherji & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1769-1787, December.
  5. Heinemann, Frank & Illing, Gerhard, 2002. "Speculative attacks: Unique equilibrium and transparency," Munich Reprints in Economics 19430, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  6. Paul R. Milgrom, 1981. "Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 380-391, Autumn.
  7. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning, Multiplicity, and the Timing of Attacks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 711-756, 05.
  8. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
  9. Dasgupta, Amil, 2007. "Coordination and delay in global games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 195-225, May.
  10. Manishi Prasad & Peter Wahlqvist & Rich Shikiar & Ya-Chen Tina Shih, 2004. "A," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 22(4), pages 225-244.
  11. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Wall Street and Silicon Valley: A Delicate Interaction," NBER Working Papers 13475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
  13. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Christian Hellwig, 2002. "Public Announcements, Adjustment Delays, and the Business Cycle (November 2002)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 208, UCLA Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Cespa, Giovanni & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Higher order expectations, illiquidity, and short-term trading," IESE Research Papers D/915, IESE Business School.
  2. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 3390, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Sandeep Baliga & Eran Hanany & Peter Klibanoff, 2013. "Polarization and Ambiguity," Discussion Papers 1558, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Paolo Colla & José M. Marín, 2010. "Performance evaluation in competitive REE models," Working Papers 2010-21, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.

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