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Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others

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Author Info
 Foster, F Douglas
Viswanathan, S

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Abstract

The authors analyze a multiperiod model of trading with differentially informed traders, liquidity traders, and a marketmaker. Each informed trader's initial information is a noisy estimate of the long-term value of the asset and the different signals received by informed traders can have a variety of correlation structures. With this setup, informed traders not only compete with each other for trading profits, they also learn about other traders' signals from the observed order flow. The authors' work suggests that the initial correlation among the informed traders' signals has a significant effect on the informed traders' profits and the informativeness of prices. Copyright 1996 by American Finance Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 51 (1996)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1437-78
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:51:y:1996:i:4:p:1437-78

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  1. Craig Holden & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "New Events, Information Acquisition, and Serial Correlation," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1115, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dan Bernhardt & Ryan Davies & John Spicer, 2000. "Long-term information, short-lived derivative securities," Working Papers 994, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lones Smith, 2000. "Private Information and Trade Timing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1012-1018, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church, 1998. "The effects of subject pool and design experience on rationality in experimental asset markets," Working Paper 98-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  5. Barner, Martin & Feri, Francesco & Plott, Charles, 2004. "On the Microstructure of Price Determination and Information Aggregation with Sequential and Asymmetric Information Arrival in an Experimental Asset Market," Working Papers 1204, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  6. Schoeneborn, Torsten & Schied, Alexander, 2007. "Liquidation in the Face of Adversity: Stealth Vs. Sunshine Trading, Predatory Trading Vs. Liquidity Provision," MPRA Paper 5548, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Noeth, Markus & Camerer, Colin F. & Plott, Charles R. & Webber, Martin, 1999. "Information Aggregation in Experimental Asset Markets: Traps and Misaligned Beliefs," Working Papers 1060, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  9. Spyros Pagratis, . "Asset pricing, asymmetric information and rating announcements: does benchmarking on ratings matter?," Bank of England working papers 265, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  10. Dominique Dupont, 1997. "Trading volume and information distribution in a market-clearing framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Todd B. Walker, 2005. "How Equilibrium Prices Reveal Information in Time Series Models with Disparately Informed, Competitive Traders," Finance 0509021, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Price formation and liquidity in the U.S. treasuries market: evidence from intraday patterns around announcements," Research Paper 9633, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  13. Calcagno, R. & Lovo, S.M., 2002. "Market efficiency and price formation when dealers are asymmetrically informed," Discussion Paper 42, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Francis X. Diebold & Georg H. Strasser, 2008. "On the Correlation Structure of Microstructure Noise in Theory and Practice," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-038, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Sara Fisher Ellison & Wallace P. Mullin, 1997. "Gradual Incorporation of Information into Stock Prices: Empirical Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Ping Zhang, 2002. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: evidence from experimental asset markets," Working Paper 2002-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  17. Ken Nyholm, 2003. "Inferring the private information content of trades: a regime-switching approach

    The views presented in the paper are not necessarily shared by the European Centra," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 457-470. [Downloadable!]

  18. Ramdan Dridi & Laurent Germain, 2000. "Noise and Competition in Strategic Oligopoly," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2000/395, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  19. Hua He & Jiang Wang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 5010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2006. "Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 874, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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