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A Theory of Demand Shocks

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Author Info
Guido Lorenzoni

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Abstract

This paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations regarding aggregate productivity. Agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks, they observe their own productivity and a noisy public signal regarding aggregate productivity. The shock to this public signal, or "news shock," has the features of an aggregate demand shock: it increases output, employment and inflation in the short run and has no effects in the long run. The dynamics of the economy following an aggregate productivity shock are also affected by the presence of imperfect information: after a productivity shock output adjusts gradually to its higher long-run level, and there is a temporary negative effect on inflation and employment. A calibrated version of the model is able to generate realistic amounts of short-run volatility due to demand shocks, in line with existing time-series evidence. The paper also develops a simple method to solve forward-looking models with dispersed information.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12477.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12477

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  34. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Indicator variables for optimal policy under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 661-690, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Leon W. Berkelmans, 2008. "Imperfect information and monetary models: multiple shocks and their consequences," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-58, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Emine Boz & Christian Daude & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend," International Finance Discussion Papers 927, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 15015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Expectations, Learning And Business Cycle Fluctuations," CAMA Working Papers 2008-20, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "A Sticky-Information General-Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Hellwig, Christian & Veldkamp, Laura, 2007. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2009. "Information Flows and Aggregate Persistence," Working Papers 09-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Markku Lanne & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2008. "Stock Prices and Economic Fluctuations: A Markov Switching Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/29, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Leonardo Melosi, 2009. "A Likelihood Analysis of Models with Information Frictions," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-009, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  10. Laura Veldkamp & Chris Edmond, 2006. "Income Dispersion, Asymmetric Information and Fluctuations in Market Efficiency," Working Papers 06-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. George-Marios Angeletos & Jennifer La'O, 2009. "Incomplete Information, Higher-Order Beliefs and Price Inertia," NBER Working Papers 15003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," NBER Working Papers 15049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Liam Graham & Stephen Wright, 2009. "Information, heterogeneity and market incompleteness," Kiel Working Papers 1503, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  14. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Policy with Dispersed Information," NBER Working Papers 13590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "News Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 12898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Wall Street and Silicon Valley: A Delicate Interaction," NBER Working Papers 13475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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