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Productivity Growth, Consumer Confidence and the Business Cycle

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Author Info
Jean-Pierre DANTHINE
John B. DONALDSON
Thore JOHNSEN

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to provide, in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model, an answer to the following five questions: 1. To what extent does an economy subject to regular variations in labor productivity growth differ from one where labor productivity is constant? 2.What is the impact on major macro indicators of a one-time change in labor productivity growth? 3. What are the business cycle implications of autonomous (non-falsifiable) changes in growth expectations? 4. What is the potential of such expectation changes for explaining the volatility of consumption to output ratio? 5. Can autonomous changes in growth expectations help us understand recent business cycle episodes?

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 9711.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Sep 1997
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in European Economic Review, vol.42, 1998, pp. 1113-1140
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:9711

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Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
Phone: ++41 21 692.33.64
Fax: ++41 21 692.33.65
Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications-english/e-cahiers.htm

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Related research
Keywords: business cycle; labor productivity; consumption;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2008. "The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/05, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Behavioural Theories of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Orlando Gomes, 2007. "Imperfect Demand Expectations and Endogenous Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 127, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Luis Opazo, 2006. "The Backus-Smith Puzzle: The Role of Expectations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 395, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mertens, Karel, 2007. "The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops," Working Papers 07-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Den Haan, Wouter & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2007. "Anticipated Growth and Business Cycles in Matching Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6063, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "News Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 12898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2009. "Firm-Specific Capital, Productivity Shocks and Investment Dynamics," Working Papers 120, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Chen, Kaiji & Song, Zheng, 2007. "Financial Friction, Capital Reallocation and Expectation-Driven Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 3889, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.


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