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Productivity Growth, Consumer Confidence and the Business Cycle

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Author Info

  • Jean-Pierre DANTHINE
  • John B. DONALDSON
  • Thore JOHNSEN

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to provide, in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model, an answer to the following five questions: 1. To what extent does an economy subject to regular variations in labor productivity growth differ from one where labor productivity is constant? 2.What is the impact on major macro indicators of a one-time change in labor productivity growth? 3. What are the business cycle implications of autonomous (non-falsifiable) changes in growth expectations? 4. What is the potential of such expectation changes for explaining the volatility of consumption to output ratio? 5. Can autonomous changes in growth expectations help us understand recent business cycle episodes?

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 9711.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Sep 1997
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in European Economic Review, vol.42, 1998, pp. 1113-1140
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:9711

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
Phone: ++41 21 692.33.64
Fax: ++41 21 692.33.05
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Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications/cahiers/series
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Related research

Keywords: business cycle; labor productivity; consumption;

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References

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  1. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September.
  2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  3. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1994. "A progress report on business cycle models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-16.
  4. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  5. Richard Rogerson, 2010. "Indivisible Labor, Lotteries and Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 250, David K. Levine.
  6. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  7. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  8. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Mehra, Rajnish, 1989. "On some computational aspects of equilibrium business cycle theory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 449-470, July.
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