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Behavioral Theories of the Business Cycle

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  • Nir Jaimovich
  • Sergio Rebelo

Abstract

We explore the business cycle implications of expectation shocks and of two well-known psychological biases, optimismand overconfidence. The expectations of optimistic agents are biased toward good outcomes, whereas overconfident agentsoverestimate the precision of the signals that they receive. Both expectation shocks and overconfidence can increasebusiness-cycle volatility, while preserving the model's properties in terms of comovement and relative volatilities.In contrast, optimism is not a useful source of volatility in our model. (JEL: E3) (c) 2007 by the European Economic Association.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Journal of the European Economic Association.

Volume (Year): 5 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (04-05)
Pages: 361-368

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:5:y:2007:i:2-3:p:361-368

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  1. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  3. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B & Johnsen, Thore, 1998. "Productivity Growth, Consumer Confidence and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Paul Söderlind, 2006. "C-CAPM without Ex Post Data," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 2006-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  6. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker, 2005. "Optimal Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1092-1118, September.
  7. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
  8. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
  9. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Carlos Garcia & Andrés Sagner, 2012. "Exceso de Toma de Riesgo Crediticio en Chile," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv280, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
  2. Dmitriev, Mikhail, 2009. "Confidence of Agents and Market Frictions," MPRA Paper 21149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral Economics and Macroeconomic Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Holden, Steinar, 2012. "Implications of Insights from Behavioral Economics for Macroeconomic Models," Memorandum 25/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  5. Doshchyn, Artur & Giommetti, Nicola, 2013. "Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 49617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Carlos J. García & Andrés Sagner, 2011. "Crédito, Exceso de toma de Riesgo, Costo de Crédito y ciclo Económico en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 645, Central Bank of Chile.

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