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Overoptimism and house price bubbles

Author

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  • Abildgren, Kim
  • Hansen, Niels Lynggård
  • Kuchler, Andreas

Abstract

The paper explores the significance of overoptimism for house prices in Denmark using both aggregated data from the Danish Consumer Expectations Survey as well as the underlying household-level microdata matched with administrative register data at a household level. The results indicate that house price developments are partly driven by sentiments decoupled from underlying economic fundamentals. This seems especially to have been the case during the strong house price booms in the mid-1980 s and the mid-2000 s, where overoptimism might have accounted for 15–20% of the house prices' deviation from a constant growth trend. Furthermore, overoptimistic households were more likely to purchase real estate in the 2000 s compared to other households, and they leveraged more when purchasing real estate. There seems thus to be a separate “confidence” channel in the determination of house prices in addition to the variables usually found in standard macroeconomic house-price models.

Suggested Citation

  • Abildgren, Kim & Hansen, Niels Lynggård & Kuchler, Andreas, 2018. "Overoptimism and house price bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.12.006
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    Cited by:

    1. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    2. Hamid Baghestani & Ajalavat Viriyavipart, 2019. "Do factors influencing consumer home-buying attitudes explain output growth?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(5), pages 1104-1115, August.
    3. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2023. "Sentiment-based indicators of real estate market stress and systemic risk: international evidence," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-382, September.
    4. Benjamin Kwakye & Chan Tze Haw, 2020. "Interplay of the Macroeconomy and Real Estate: Systematic Review of Literature," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 262-271.
    5. Dimitris Anastasiou & Panayotis Kapopoulos & Kalliopi-Maria Zekente, 2023. "Sentimental Shocks and House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 627-655, November.
    6. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer sentiments; House price bubbles; Microdata; Macroeconomic stabilisation policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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