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Optimism and Economic Choice

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Author Info
Manju Puri
David Robinson

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Abstract

This paper presents some of the first large-scale survey evidence linking optimism to major economic choices. We create a novel measure of optimism using the Survey of Consumer Finance by comparing a person's self-reported life expectancy to that implied by statistical tables. Optimists are more likely to believe that future economic conditions will improve. Self-employed respondents are more optimistic than regular wage earners. In general, more optimistic people work harder and anticipate longer age-adjusted work careers. They are more likely to remarry, conditional on divorce. In addition, they tilt their investment portfolios more toward individual stocks.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11361.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11361

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G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jonathan Parker & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2002. "Optimal Expectations," FMG Discussion Papers dp434, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September. [Downloadable!]
  3. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. William M. Gentry & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2000. "Entrepreneurship and Household Saving," NBER Working Papers 7894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nicholas Barberis & Richard Thaler, 2002. "A Survey of Behavioral Finance," NBER Working Papers 9222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Dirk Jenter, 2005. "Market Timing and Managerial Portfolio Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1903-1949, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 8876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rigotti, L. & Ryan, M. & Vaithianathan, R., 2001. "Entrepreneurial innovation," Discussion Paper 21, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Barton H. Hamilton, 2000. "Does Entrepreneurship Pay? An Empirical Analysis of the Returns to Self-Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 604-631, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2004. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 10807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Verheul, I. & Carree, M.A., 2008. "Overoptimism among Founders: The Role of Information and Motivation," Research Paper ERS-2008-008-ORG Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  2. John Y. Campbell, 2006. "Household Finance," NBER Working Papers 12149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. L. Bottazzi & M. Da Rin & T. Hellmann, 2007. "Who are the active investors? Evidence from Venture Capital," Working Papers 611, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Salvador Valdés-Prieto, 2009. "The 2008 Chilean Reform to First-Pillar Pensions," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  5. Renneboog, L.D.R. & Spaenjers, C., 2009. "Where Angels Fear to Trade: The Role of Religion in Household Finance," Discussion Paper 2009-34, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2005. "Trusting the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 11648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Klapper, Leora F. & Panos, Georgios A., 2009. "Entrepreneurship in post-conflict transition : the role of informality and access to finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4935, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," SIFR Research Report Series 40, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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