On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs
AbstractThis paper explains why seemingly irrational overconfident behavior can persist. Information aggregation is poor in groups in which most individuals herd. By ignoring the herd, the actions of overconfident individuals ("entrepreneurs") convey their private information. However, entrepreneurs make mistakes and thus die more frequently. The socially optimal proportion of entrepreneurs trades off the positive information externality against high attrition rates of entrepreneurs, and depends on the size of the group, on the degree of overconfidence, and on the accuracy of individuals' private information. The stationary distribution trades off the fitness of the group against the fitness of overconfident individuals. Copyright (c) 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economics & Management Strategy.
Volume (Year): 10 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
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Web page: http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/research/journals/JEMS/
Other versions of this item:
- Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 1307, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Bernardo, Antonio & Welch, Ivo, 1997. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA qt6668s4pz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Antonio Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management ysm211, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2003.
- D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
- L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
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