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Overconfidence in Investment Decisions: An Experimental Approach

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  • Dennis Dittrich

    ()

  • Werner Güth

    ()

  • Boris Maciejovsky

    ()

Abstract

We experimentally test overconfidence in investment decisions by offering partic- ipants the possibility to substitute their own for alternative investment choices. Overall, 149 subjects participated in two experiments, one with just one risky as- set, the other with two risky assets. Overconfidence increases (i) with the absolute deviation from optimal choices, (ii) with task complexity, and (iii) decreases with uncertainty as indicated by the difference between willingness to pay and to accept.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group in its series Papers on Strategic Interaction with number 2001-03.

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Length: 21 pages
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Handle: RePEc:esi:discus:2001-03

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Keywords: Risky decision making; Behavioral finance; Portfolio choice; Experimental economics;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fellner, Gerlinde & Guth, Werner & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2004. "Illusion of expertise in portfolio decisions: an experimental approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 355-376, November.
  2. Gerlinde Fellner & Werner Güth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "Satisficing in Financial Decision Making A Theoretical and Experimental Attempt to Explore Bounded Rationality," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2005-23, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
  3. Hilary, Gilles & Hsu, Charles, 2011. "Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 300-313, April.
  4. Mirela MATEI & Jean ANDREI, 2011. "Considerations Regarding the Social Responsible Investments on Capital Market," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(6), pages 429-434, December.
  5. Gardebroek, Cornelis & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M., 2008. "Dynamic Microeconometric Approaches To Analysing Agricultural Policy," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6592, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Sokolovskyi, Dmytro & Sokolovska, Olena, 2013. "The problem of arising the Pareto inefficient norm in relations “investor – government” type," MPRA Paper 44745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Gary Charness & Uri Gneezy, 2010. "Portfolio Choice And Risk Attitudes: An Experiment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 133-146, 01.
  8. Marcia L. Zindel & Emilio Menezes & Raul Matsushita & Sergio Da Silva, 2010. "Biological characteristics modulating investor overconfidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1496-1508.
  9. Beatriz Fernández & Teresa Garcia-Merino & Rosa Mayoral & Valle Santos & Eleuterio Vallelado, 2011. "Herding, information uncertainty and investors' cognitive profile," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 7-33, April.
  10. Boris Maciejovsky & Tarek El-Sehitya & Hans Haumerb & Christian Helmensteinc & Erich Kirchlerd, . "Hindsight Bias and Individual Risk Attitude within the Context of Experimental Asset Markets," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-16, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.

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