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Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents

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  • Diego García

    ()

  • Francesco Sangiorgi

    ()

  • Branko Urošević

    ()

Abstract

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not a ect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders’ expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 30 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 313-336

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:30:y:2007:i:2:p:313-336

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Related research

Keywords: Partially revealing equilibria; Overconfidence; Rational expectations; Information acquisition; Price informativeness; D80; G10;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Pierre Benoit & Juan Dubra & Don Moore, 2013. "Does the better –than- average effect show that people are Overconfident?: two experiments," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 1301, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
  2. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2007. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 6017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
  3. M. Middeldorp & S. Rosenkranz, 2008. "Information acquisition in an experimental asset market," Working Papers 08-25, Utrecht School of Economics.
  4. Juan Dubra & Jean-Pierre Benoit, 2011. "Apparent Overconfidence," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 1106, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
  5. Bertrand BLANCHETON (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113) & Yves JEGOUREL (LAREFI), 2009. "Sovereign wealth funds: toward a new state capitalism? (In French)," Cahiers du GREThA 2009-04, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  6. Rietveld, C.A. & Groenen, P.J.F. & Koellinger, Ph.D. & van der Loos, M.J.H.M. & Thurik, A.R., 2013. "Living Forever: Entrepreneurial Overconfidence at Older Ages," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-012-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  7. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan & Moore, Don, 2009. "Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: An Experiment," MPRA Paper 13168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Zhou, Deqing, 2013. "Irrational confidence, imperfect and long-lived information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 383-405.
  9. Luca Rigotti & Matthew Ryan & Rhema Vaithianathan, 2011. "Optimism and firm formation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 1-38, January.

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