Thoughts on quantifying overconfidence in economic experiments
AbstractThis article illustrates the difficulties of quantifying overconfidence in economic experiments and suggests a procedure for the development of the reliable overconfidence measurement instrument (test). Following the suggested two-stage procedure a sample measure of overconfidence is developed. First a pilot test is conducted to divide the initial fifty items into three difficulty levels: hard, moderate and easy questions. A final test was compiled of six questions of each difficulty levels. In the second phase a replicability check was run with the final instrument.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44399.
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
overconfidence quantification; instrument development; economic experiment.;
Other versions of this item:
- Michailova, Julija & Katter, Joana K. Q., 2013. "Thoughts on quantifying overconfidence in economic experiments," MPRA Paper 53112, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2014.
- C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
- C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
- C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2013-03-16 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-EXP-2013-03-16 (Experimental Economics)
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