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Overconfidence in Search

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Author Info
Dubra, J.

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Abstract

In a standard search model I relax the assumption that agents know the distribution of offers and characterize the behavioral and welfare consequences of overconfidence. Optimistic individuals search longer if they are equally stubborn and high offers are good news. Otherwise, the pessimists search longer. The welfare of unbiased individuals is larger than that of overconfident decision makers if the latter's biases are large and searchers stubborn. Otherwise, the overconfident may be better off. Finally, I give a testable implication of overconfidence and discuss applications and policy issues.

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Paper provided by C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University in its series Working Papers with number 99-10.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cvs:starer:99-10

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Postal: C.V. Starr Center, Department of Economics, New York University, 269 Mercer Street 7th Floor, New York, NY 10003
Phone: (212) 998-8936
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Web page: http://www.nyu.edu/econ/cvstarr/index.html
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Postal: C.V. Starr Center, Department of Economics, New York University, 269 Mercer Street 7th Floor, New York, NY 10003
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "Searching for the Lowest Price When the Distribution of Prices Is Unknown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 689-711, July/Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael Manove & A. Jorge Padilla, 1999. "Banking (Conservatively) with Optimists," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(2), pages 324-350, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Camerer, Colin, . "Progress and Behavioral Game Theory," Working Papers 1004, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kalai, Ehud & Lehrer, Ehud, 1993. "Rational Learning Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1019-45, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  6. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Sharma, Sunil, 1996. "Optimal search with learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 333-359. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kohn, Meir G. & Shavell, Steven, 1974. "The theory of search," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 93-123, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1988. "Multiple Expectational Equilibria under Monopolistic Competition," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 695-713, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2004. "An exploration into Pigou's theory of cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1183-1216, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Camerer, Colin F, 1997. "Progress in Behavioral Game Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 167-88, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Antonio Merlo & François Ortalo-Magné, 2002. "Bargaining over Residential Real Estate: Evidence from England (Third Version)," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francesco Squintani, 1999. "On-the-Job Signaling and Self-Confidence," Discussion Papers 1274, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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