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Overconfidence and Trading Volume

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  • Glaser, Markus

    ()
    (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

  • Weber, Martin

    ()
    (Lehrstuhl für ABWL, Finanzwirtschaft, insb. Bankbetriebslehre)

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    Abstract

    Theoretical models predict that overconfident investors will trade more than rational investors. We directly test this hypothesis by correlating individual overconfidence scores with several measures of trading volume of individual investors (number of trades, turnover). Approximately 3000 online broker investors were asked to answer an internet questionnaire which was designed to measure various facets of overconfidence (miscalibration, the better than average effect, illusion of control, unrealistic optimism). The measures of trading volume were calculated by the trades of 215 individual investors who answered the questionnaire. We find that investors who think that they are above average in terms of investment skills or past performance trade more. Measures of miscalibration are, contrary to theory, unrelated to measures of trading volume. This result is striking as theoretical models that incorporate overconfident investors mainly motivate this assumption by the calibration literature and model overconfidence as underestimation of the variance of signals. The results hold even when we control for several other determinants of trading volume in a cross-sectional regression analysis. In connection with other recent findings, we conclude that the usual way of motivating and modelling overconfidence which is mainly based on the calibration literature has to be treated with caution. We argue that our findings present a psychological foundation for the ``differences of opinion'' explanation of high levels of trading volume. In addition, our way of empirically evaluating behavioral finance models - the correlation of economic and psychological variables and the combination of psychometric measures of judgment biases (such as overconfidence scores) and field data - seems to be a promising way to better understand which psychological phenomena drive economic behavior.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim in its series Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications with number 03-07.

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    Length: 55 pages
    Date of creation: 29 Apr 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:03-07

    Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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    References

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    1. Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    2. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    3. Hvide, Hans K., 2002. "Pragmatic beliefs and overconfidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 15-28, May.
    4. V. Anderhub & R. Müller & C. Schmidt, 1998. "Design and Evaluation of an Economic Experiment via the Internet," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,69, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
    6. Biais, Bruno & Hilton, Denis & Pouget, Sébastien, 2002. "Psychological Traits and Trading Strategies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Caballe, Jordi & Sakovics, Jozsef, 2003. "Speculating against an overconfident market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 199-225, April.
    8. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980.
    9. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erik & Schröder, Michael, 2010. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 402-412, September.
    2. Di Maggio, Marco, 2009. "Sweet Talk: A Theory of Persuasion," MPRA Paper 18697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Glaser, Markus, 2003. "Online Broker Investors: Demographic Information, Investment Strategy, Portfolio Positions, and Trading Activity," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-18, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    4. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005. "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312.
    5. Diego García & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urošević, 2007. "Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 313-336, February.
    6. Santos-Pinto, Luís, 2005. "Positive self-image over time," MPRA Paper 3145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Apr 2006.
    7. Ko, K. Jeremy & (James) Huang, Zhijian, 2007. "Arrogance can be a virtue: Overconfidence, information acquisition, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 529-560, May.
    8. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," SIFR Research Report Series 40, Institute for Financial Research.
    9. Chandra, Abhijeet, 2008. "Decision Making in the Stock Market: Incorporating Psychology with Finance," MPRA Paper 21288, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Nov 2008.

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