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Overconfidence of Professionals and Lay Men: Individual Differences Within and Between Tasks?

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Author Info

  • Glaser, Markus

    ()
    (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

  • Langer, Thomas

    ()
    (Westfälischen Wilhelms-Universität Münster Lehrstuhl für BWL, insbesondere Finanzierung)

  • Weber, Martin

    ()
    (Lehrstuhl für ABWL, Finanzwirtschaft, insb. Bankbetriebslehre)

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    Abstract

    Overconfidence can manifest itself in various forms. For example, people think that their knowledge is more precise than it really is (miscalibration) and they believe that their abilities are above average (better than average effect). The questions whether judgment biases are related or whether stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence exist, have long been unexplored. In this paper, we present two studies that analyze whether professional traders or investment bankers who work for international banks are prone to judgment biases to the same degree as a population of lay men. We examine whether there are robust individual differences in the degree of overconfidence within various tasks. Furthermore, we analyze whether the degree of judgment biases is correlated across tasks. Based on the answers of 123 professionals, we find that expert judgment is biased. In most tasks, their degrees of overconfidence are significantly higher than the respective scores of a student control group. In line with the literature, we find stable individual differences within tasks (e.g. in the degree of miscalibration). However, we find that correlations across distinct tasks are sometimes insignificant or even negative. We conclude that some manifestations of overconfidence, that are often argued to be related, are actually unrelated.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim in its series Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications with number 05-25.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: 27 Apr 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:05-25

    Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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    Cited by:
    1. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 34799, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2011.
    2. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008. "Will Women Be Women? Analyzing the Gender Difference among Financial Experts," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-391, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    3. Fellner, Gerlinde & Krügel, Sebastian, 2012. "Judgmental overconfidence: Three measures, one bias?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 142-154.
    4. Marina Nikiforow, 2010. "Does training on behavioural finance influence fund managers' perception and behaviour?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(7), pages 515-528.
    5. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," SIFR Research Report Series 40, Institute for Financial Research.
    6. Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Michael Schröder, 2005. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-10, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
    7. Larrick, Richard P. & Burson, Katherine A. & Soll, Jack B., 2007. "Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you're better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not)," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 76-94, January.
    8. Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Financial professionals' overconfidence:Is it experience, function, or attitude?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-428, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    9. Sonsino, Doron & Regev, Eran, 2013. "Informational overconfidence in return prediction – More properties," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-84.
    10. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2008. "Are all professional investors sophisticated?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-397, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    11. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2008. "Cross-cultural overconfidence and biased self-attribution," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1815-1824, October.
    12. Santos-Pinto, Luís, 2005. "Positive self-image over time," MPRA Paper 3145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Apr 2006.
    13. Kourtidis, Dimitrios & Šević, Željko & Chatzoglou, Prodromos, 2011. "Investors’ trading activity: A behavioural perspective and empirical results," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 548-557.
    14. Carl-Christian Trönnberg & Sven Hemlin, 2012. "Banker's lending decision making: a psychological approach," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(11), pages 1032-1047, November.
    15. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2008. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-392, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    16. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.

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