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Judgmental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market

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Biais, Bruno
Hilton, Denis
Mazurier, Karine
Pouget, Sébastien

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Paper provided by Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse in its series IDEI Working Papers with number 259.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Publication status: Published in Review of Economic Studies, vol. 72, n°2, avril 2005, p. 287-312.[ Texte complet ]
Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:1570

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 589-616, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Anderson, Matthew J. & Sunder, Shyam, 1995. "Professional Traders as Intuitive Bayesians," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 185-202, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Camerer, Colin, . "Progress and Behavioral Game Theory," Working Papers 1004, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  5. Smith, Vernon L, 1985. "Experimental Economics: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 264-72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Reinhard Selten & Michael Mitzkewitz & Gerald R. Uhlich, 1997. "Duopoly Strategies Programmed by Experienced Players," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 517-556, May.
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  7. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1991. " Volatility, Efficiency, and Trading: Evidence from the Japanese Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1765-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model Of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Noeth, Markus & Camerer, Colin F. & Plott, Charles R. & Webber, Martin, 1999. "Information Aggregation in Experimental Asset Markets: Traps and Misaligned Beliefs," Working Papers 1060, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  12. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. " Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-53, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Landier, Augustin & Thesmar, David, 2003. "Financial Contracting with Optimistic Entrepreneurs: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 3971, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1085-1118, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Camerer, Colin F. & Hogarth, Robin M., 1999. "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Working Papers 1059, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  17. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," CEPR Discussion Papers 3941, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Colin Camerer & Dan Lovallo, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Camerer, Colin F & Hogarth, Robin M, 1999. "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 7-42, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Isaac, R Mark & Walker, James M, 1988. "Group Size Effects in Public Goods Provision: The Voluntary Contributions Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 179-99, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Camerer, Colin & Loewenstein, George & Weber, Martin, 1989. "The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1232-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, And Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Biais, Bruno & Pouget, Sébastien, 2000. "Microstructure, Incentives, and the Discovery of Equilibrium in Experimental Financial Markets," IDEI Working Papers 103, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  26. Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Erik Eyster & Matt Rabin, 2003. "Cursed Equilibrium," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0303002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2007. "Information Acquisition and Portfolio Performance," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/45, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Michael Schröder, 2005. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-10, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2009. "Financial professionals' overconfidence: Is it experience, job, or attitude?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-428, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  4. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence of Professionals and Lay Men: Individual Differences Within and Between Tasks?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-25, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frank Caliendo & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2007. "Overconfidence and Consumption over the Life Cycle," Working Papers 0712, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erick & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-83, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jean Pierre Benoit & Juan Dubra, 2008. "Overconfidence?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002142, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2006. "Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity," NBER Working Papers 12223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," SIFR Research Report Series 40, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008. "Will Women Be Women? Analyzing the Gender Difference among Financial Experts," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-391, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Biais, Bruno & Weber, Martin, 2008. "Hindsight Bias and Investment Performance," IDEI Working Papers 476, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andersson, Patric, 2005. "Overconfident but yet well-calibrated and underconfident: A research note on judgmental miscalibration and flawed self-assessment," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-37, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  13. Hopfensitz, Astrid & Wranik, Tanja, 2008. "Psychological and environmental determinants of myopic loss aversion," MPRA Paper 9305, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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