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Psychological Traits and Trading Strategies

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Author Info
Biais, Bruno
Hilton, Denis
Pouget, Sébastien

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Abstract

In this Paper we measure psychological traits and show that they significantly affect behaviour and performance in a financial context. Based on the answers of 184 subjects to a psychological questionnaire we measured their degree of overconfidence, ie. the extent to which they overestimate the precision of their information, and self-monitoring, which is a form of social intelligence. The subjects also participated in an experimental financial market under asymmetric information in the spirit of Plott and Sunder (1988). In line with the hypothesis that they suffer from the winner’s curse, overconfident subjects are found to earn relatively low trading profits. In contrast, our finding that high self-monitors earn relatively large trading profits is consistent with the hypothesis that they are relatively good at anticipating the trading motivations of the other traders.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3195.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3195

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Related research
Keywords: self-monitors; social intelligence; trading strategies;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Anderson, Matthew J. & Sunder, Shyam, 1995. "Professional Traders as Intuitive Bayesians," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 185-202, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Camerer, Colin, . "Progress and Behavioral Game Theory," Working Papers 1004, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  3. Reinhard Selten & Michael Mitzkewitz & Gerald R. Uhlich, 1997. "Duopoly Strategies Programmed by Experienced Players," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 517-556, May.
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  4. Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model Of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Camerer, Colin & Loewenstein, George & Weber, Martin, 1989. "The Curse of Knowledge in Economic Settings: An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1232-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. BIAIS, Bruno & POUGET, Sébastien, 2000. "Microstructure, Incentives, and the Discovery of Equilibrium in Experimental Financial Markets," IDEI Working Papers 103, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Glaser, Markus & Nöth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Behavioral Finance," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  2. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dittrich, Dennis & Gueth, Werner & Maciejovsky, Boris, 2001. "Overconfidence in Investment Decisions: An Experimental Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," CEPR Discussion Papers 3941, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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