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What's causing overreaction? : An experimental investigation of recency and the hot hand effect

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  • Offerman, T.J.S.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Sonnemans, J.H.

Abstract

A substantial body of empirical literature provides evidence of overreaction in markets. Past losers outperform past winners in stock markets as well as in sports markets. Two hypotheses are consistent with this observation. The recency hypothesis states that traders overweight recent information; they are too optimistic about winners and too pessimistic about losers. According to the hot‐hand hypothesis, traders try to discover trends in the past record of a firm or a team, and thereby overestimate the autocorrelation in the series. An experimental design allows us to distinguish between these hypotheses. The evidence is consistent with the hot‐hand hypothesis.
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Suggested Citation

  • Offerman, T.J.S. & Sonnemans, J.H., 1997. "What's causing overreaction? : An experimental investigation of recency and the hot hand effect," Other publications TiSEM 861425ee-7531-4c91-ae9e-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:861425ee-7531-4c91-ae9e-ac7a5133faa5
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    2. Duttle, Kai, 2015. "Disentangling two causes of biased probability judgment: Cognitive skills and perception of randomness," Ruhr Economic Papers 568, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Lars Lefgren & Brennan Platt & Joseph Price, 2015. "Sticking with What (Barely) Worked: A Test of Outcome Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(5), pages 1121-1136, May.
    4. Francisco Galarza, 2010. "Experimentos de campo en economía: preferencias en relación al riesgo y demanda por contratos intertemporales en el Perú," Apuntes. Revista de ciencias sociales, Fondo Editorial, Universidad del Pacífico, vol. 37(66), pages 5-27.
    5. Offerman, Theo & Schotter, Andrew, 2009. "Imitation and luck: An experimental study on social sampling," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 461-502, March.
    6. Silvia Bou & Jordi Brandts & Magda Cayón & Pablo Guillén, 2016. "The price of luck: paying for the hot hand of others," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 2(1), pages 60-72, May.
    7. Daniel F. Stone & Jeremy Arkes, 2018. "March Madness? Underreaction To Hot And Cold Hands In Ncaa Basketball," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1724-1747, July.
    8. Bao, Te & Corgnet, Brice & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Zhu, Jiahua, 2023. "Predicting the unpredictable: New experimental evidence on forecasting random walks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Galarza, Francisco, 2009. "Risk, Credit, and Insurance in Peru: Field Experimental Evidence," MPRA Paper 17833, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mark David Witte & McDonald Paul Mirabile, 2010. "Not So Fast, My Friend: Biases in College Football Polls," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 443-455, August.
    11. Sabrina Hammiche & Laurent Denant-Boemont, 2008. "Que vaut la flexibilité des choix individuels de transport ? Une étude de cas expérimental," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 182(1), pages 97-111.
    12. Kevin Lee & Scott Miller & Nicole Velasquez & Christi Wann, 2013. "The Effect of Investor Bias and Gender on Portfolio Performance and Risk," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16.
    13. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bao, Te & Sutan, Angela & Tuinstra, Jan, 2019. "Fee structure and mutual fund choice: An experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 449-474.
    14. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:5:p:416-428 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Lars Lefgren & Brennan Platt & Joseph Price, 2011. "Sticking with What (Barely) Worked," NBER Working Papers 17477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Morris, Michael W. & Sheldon, Oliver J. & Ames, Daniel R. & Young, Maia J, 2007. "Metaphors and the market: Consequences and preconditions of agent and object metaphors in stock market commentary," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 174-192, March.
    17. Sigrid Suetens & Claus B. Galbo-Jørgensen & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2016. "Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment On The Gambler'S Fallacy And The Hot-Hand Fallacy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 584-607, June.
    18. Holt, Charles A. & Smith, Angela M., 2009. "An update on Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 125-134, February.
    19. Sigrid Møyner Hohle & Karl Halvor Teigen, 2015. "Forecasting forecasts: The trend effect," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(5), pages 416-428, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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