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Mean Reversion of Short-Horizon Stock Returns: Asymmetry Property

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  • Kiseok Nam
  • Sei-Wan Kim
  • Augustine. Arize

Abstract

In this paper, we explore nonlinearity inherent in short-horizon return dynamics, which is characterized by an asymmetric mean-reverting property. Over the period of 1962:07–2003:12, both daily and weekly returns of three market indexes and individual stock returns exhibit a strong asymmetric reverting pattern in which a negative return reverts more quickly, with a greater reverting magnitude, than positive returns revert to negative returns. The observed asymmetric reverting pattern is not justified under the positive relationship between future volatility and risk premium, which is a key presumption in the time-varying rational expectation hypothesis. The asymmetric reverting behavior of stock returns explored by this paper corroborates the argument for the relative performance of “winner'' and “loser'' stocks that has been documented by contrarian literature. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

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  • Kiseok Nam & Sei-Wan Kim & Augustine. Arize, 2006. "Mean Reversion of Short-Horizon Stock Returns: Asymmetry Property," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 137-163, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:26:y:2006:i:2:p:137-163
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-006-7213-0
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    Cited by:

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    3. Kwang-il Choe & Joshua Krausz & Kiseok Nam, 2011. "Technical trading rules for nonlinear dynamics of stock returns: evidence from the G-7 stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 323-353, April.
    4. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    6. Vinicius Ratton Brandi, 2020. "Short-Term Predictability of Stock Market Indexes following Large Drawdowns and Drawups," Working Papers Series 529, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Warren Dean & Robert Faff, 2008. "Evidence of feedback trading with Markov switching regimes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 133-151, February.
    8. Yue Liu, 2019. "Shareholder wealth effects of M&A withdrawals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 681-716, April.
    9. Nathaniel Gbenro & Richard Kouamé Moussa, 2019. "Asymmetric Mean Reversion in Low Liquid Markets: Evidence from BRVM," Post-Print hal-02059799, HAL.
    10. Nathaniel Gbenro & Richard Kouamé Moussa, 2019. "Asymmetric Mean Reversion in Low Liquid Markets: Evidence from BRVM," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, March.
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    12. Corbet, Shaen & Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2020. "Asymmetric mean reversion of Bitcoin price returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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