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Advance information and asset prices

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  • Albuquerque, Rui
  • Miao, Jianjun

Abstract

This paper provides a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model in which investors have heterogeneous information and investment opportunities. Informed investors privately receive advance information about future earnings that is unrelated to current earnings. In response to good advance information, stock prices increase and informed investors act as trend chasers, increasing their investment in stocks. Informed investors also buy other investment opportunities that are positively correlated with stocks, bearing more aggregate risk. The expected risk premium increases generating short-run momentum. Uninformed investors sell stocks, acting as contrarians. When the advance information materializes in the future, excess returns fall, generating long-run reversals.

Suggested Citation

  • Albuquerque, Rui & Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Advance information and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 236-275.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:149:y:2014:i:c:p:236-275
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2013.06.001
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    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2013. "An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(5), pages 1087-1145.
    3. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. He Huang, 2019. "How Does Information Transmission Influence the Value Creation Capability of a Digital Ecosystem? An Empirical Study of the Crypto-Digital Ecosystem Ethereum," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Ichkitidze, Yuri, 2018. "Temporary price trends in the stock market with rational agents," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 103-117.
    6. Albuquerque, Rui, 2009. "Skewness in Stock Returns, Periodic Cash Payouts, and Investor Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 7573, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. M. Max Croce & Tatyana Marchuk & Christian Schlag, 2019. "The Leading Premium," NBER Working Papers 25633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andrei, Daniel & Cujean, Julien, 2017. "Information percolation, momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 617-645.
    9. Croce, Mariano M. & Marchuk, Tatyana & Schlag, Christian, 2022. "The leading premium," SAFE Working Paper Series 371, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    10. Roşu, Ioanid, 2019. "Fast and slow informed trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-30.
    11. Jun Li, 2019. "Explaining Momentum and Value Simultaneously," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4239-4260, September.
    12. Mu-Shun Wang, 2016. "Idiosyncratic volatility, executive compensation and corporate governance: examination of the direct and moderate effects," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 213-244, March.
    13. Julio Lobao & Joao Meira Fernandes, 2017. "The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing: Implications for Asset Pricing Models," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(2), pages 349-376, November.
    14. Enoch Cheng & Clemens C. Struck, 2019. "Time-Series Momentum: A Monte-Carlo Approach," Working Papers 201906, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    15. Croce, Mariano & Schlag, Christian & Marchuk, Tatyana, 2018. "The Leading Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 12631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Allen, Franklin & Vayanos, Dimitri & Vives, Xavier, 2014. "Introduction to financial economics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1-14.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Advance information; Rational expectations equilibrium; Momentum and reversal effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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