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Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum

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  • Li, Kai

Abstract

I study a Lucas exchange economy with many trees and a representative agent who forms extrapolative beliefs on market returns (market-wide sentiment). As a result of sentiment spillovers, the agent believes that there is momentum in the cross section of asset returns. However, from the point of view of an outside econometrician, the market price of risk relates negatively to sentiment. This, together with the subjective momentum, causes returns on momentum strategies to be a concave function of sentiment, leading to a downside risk of momentum. I find empirical evidence consistent with model predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0165188921001883
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104253
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extrapolation; Investor sentiment; Spillovers; Momentum; Skewness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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