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Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

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  • Robin Greenwood
  • Andrei Shleifer

Abstract

We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. We reconcile the evidence by calibrating a simple behavioral model, in which fundamental traders require a premium to accommodate expectations shocks from extrapolative traders, but markets are not efficient.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18686.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18686

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Cited by:
  1. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J. & Mendicino, Caterina, 2012. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," Dynare Working Papers 21, CEPREMAP.
  2. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2013. "Bubbles, crashes and risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 254-258.
  3. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing, 2013. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Working Paper Series 2013-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. John C. Williams, 2013. "Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sept23.

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