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Dumb Money: Mutual Fund Flows and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

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Author Info
Andrea Frazzini
Owen A. Lamont

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Abstract

We use mutual fund flows as a measure for individual investor sentiment for different stocks, and find that high sentiment predicts low future returns at long horizons. Fund flows are dumb money %uF818 by reallocating across different mutual funds, retail investors reduce their wealth in the long run. This dumb money effect is strongly related to the value effect. High sentiment also is associated high corporate issuance, interpretable as companies increasing the supply of shares in response to investor demand.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11526.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11526

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Pension Funds; Other Private Financial Institutions
G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. William N. Goetzmann & Massimo Massa, 2000. "Daily Momentum and Contrarian Behavior of Index Fund Investors," NBER Working Papers 7567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Prem C. Jain & Joanna Shuang Wu, 2000. "Truth in Mutual Fund Advertising: Evidence on Future Performance and Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 937-958, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Owen A. Lamont, 2002. "Evaluating Value Weighting: Corporate Events and Market Timing," NBER Working Papers 9049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
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  7. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2005. "On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1983-2011, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dasgupta, Amil & Prat, Andrea & Verardo, Michela, 2007. "Institutional Trade Persistence and Long-Term Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 6374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Joseph Chen & Samuel Hanson & Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2008. "Do Hedge Funds Profit From Mutual-Fund Distress?," NBER Working Papers 13786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Braverman, Oded & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2005. "The (Bad?) Timing of Mutual Fund Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 5243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Foucault, Thierry & Themar, David & Sraer, David, 2008. "Individual investors and volatility," Les Cahiers de Recherche 899, HEC Paris. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. James Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte Madrain & Andrew Metrick, 2007. "Reinforcement Learning in Investment Behavior," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001737, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Rani Hoitash & Murugappa (Murgie) Krishnan, 2008. "Herding, momentum and investor over-reaction," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 25-47, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-337, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jennifer Huang & Jiang Wang, 2008. "Market Liquidity, Asset Prices and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 14058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Marilyn Clark-Murphy & Paul Gerrans & Craig Speelman, 2009. "Return Chasing as a Driver in Individual Retirement Savings Investment Choices: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 4-19, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Jennifer Huang & Jiang Wang, 2008. "Liquidity and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Vincent Glode & Burton Hollifield & Marcin Kacperczyk & Shimon Kogan, 2009. "Is Investor Rationality Time Varying? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," NBER Working Papers 15038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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