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Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

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Author Info
MALCOLM BAKER
JEFFREY WURGLER

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Abstract

We study how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. We predict that a wave of investor sentiment has larger effects on securities whose valuations are highly subjective and difficult to arbitrage. Consistent with this prediction, we find that when beginning-of-period proxies for sentiment are low, subsequent returns are relatively high for small stocks, young stocks, high volatility stocks, unprofitable stocks, non-dividend-paying stocks, extreme growth stocks, and distressed stocks. When sentiment is high, on the other hand, these categories of stock earn relatively low subsequent returns. Copyright 2006 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00885.x
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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 61 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
Pages: 1645-1680
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:61:y:2006:i:4:p:1645-1680

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. Joao Gomes & Leonid Kogan & Lu Zhang, 2003. "Equilibrium Cross Section of Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(4), pages 693-732, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2001. "Disappearing dividends: changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-43, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas Philippon & Yuliy Sannikov, 2007. "Real Options in a Dynamic Agency Model, with Applications to Financial Development, IPOs, and Business Risk," NBER Working Papers 13584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jiang, Danling, 2008. "Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 8325, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Doran, James & Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David, 2007. "Short-Sale Constraints and the Non-January Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," MPRA Paper 4995, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 13189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling, 2007. "Commonality in Misvaluation, Equity Financing, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 5618, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kim, KiHyung, 2007. "The Investors’ Implied Sentiment : A Robust Measure of Risk Appetite," MPRA Paper 5714, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mihir Desai & William M. Gentry, 2003. "The Character and Determinants of Corporate Capital Gains," NBER Working Papers 10153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-337, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Lily Qiu & Ivo Welch, 2004. "Investor Sentiment Measures," NBER Working Papers 10794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kai Li, 2004. "The Growth of Global Equity Markets: A Closer Look," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 54, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  11. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael, 2007. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: longer-term, nonlinear orientation on PPP," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-376, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Stephen Satchel & Vincenzo Merella, 2006. "Valuation of Options in a Setting with Happiness-Augmented Preferences," Research Paper Series 182, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  14. Schmitz, Philipp & Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2006. "Individual Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns - What Do We Learn from Warrant Traders?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 06-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  15. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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