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Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors

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Author Info
LUBOS PÁSTOR
ROBERT F. STAMBAUGH

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Abstract

We develop a framework for estimating expected returns-a "predictive system"-that allows predictors to be imperfectly correlated with the conditional expected return. When predictors are imperfect, the estimated expected return depends on past returns in a manner that hinges on the correlation between unexpected returns and innovations in expected returns. We find empirically that prior beliefs about this correlation, which is most likely negative, substantially affect estimates of expected returns as well as various inferences about predictability, including assessments of a predictor's usefulness. Compared to standard predictive regressions, predictive systems deliver different expected returns with higher estimated precision. Copyright (c) 2009 the American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01474.x
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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 64 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
Pages: 1583-1628
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:64:y:2009:i:4:p:1583-1628

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Schmeling, Maik, 2008. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-407, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009. "Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?," NBER Working Papers 14757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-048, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Miguel A. Ferreira & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole," NBER Working Papers 14571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gianni Amisano & Roberto Savona, 2008. "Imperfect predictability and mutual fund dynamics. How managers use predictors in changing systematic risk," Working Paper Series 881, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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