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Analyzing Investments Whose Histories Differ in Length

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Robert F. Stambaugh

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Abstract

This study explores multivariate methods for investment analysis based on a sample of return histories that differ in length across assets. The longer histories provide greater information about moments of returns, not only for the longer-history assets, but for the shorter-history assets as well. To account for the remaining parameter uncertainty, or estimation risk,' portfolio opportunities are characterized by a Bayesian predictive distribution. Examples involving emerging markets demonstrate the value of using the combined sample of histories and accounting for estimation risk, as compared to truncating the sample to produce equal-length histories or ignoring estimation risk by using maximum-likelihood estimates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5918.

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Date of creation: Feb 1997
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Publication status: published as Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 45 (1997): 285-331.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5918

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Harvey, Campbell R. & Zhou, Guofu, 1990. "Bayesian inference in asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 221-254, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1998. "Re-emerging Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm50, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kandel, Shmuel & McCulloch, Robert & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1995. "Bayesian Inference and Portfolio Efficiency," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 1-53. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Klein, Roger W. & Bawa, Vijay S., 1977. "The effect of limited information and estimation risk on optimal portfolio diversification," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 89-111, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shanken, Jay, 1987. "A Bayesian approach to testing portfolio efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 195-215, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Klein, Roger W. & Bawa, Vijay S., 1976. "The effect of estimation risk on optimal portfolio choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 215-231, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2000. "Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns," NBER Working Papers 7699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Uppal, Raman & Wang, Tan, 2002. "Model Misspecification and Under-Diversification," CEPR Discussion Papers 3304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pástor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F, 2007. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," CEPR Discussion Papers 6076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1998. "Costs of Equity Capital and Model Mispricing," NBER Working Papers 6490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2000. "Evaluating and Investing in Equity Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 7779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Klaas Baks & Andrew Metrick & Jessica Wachter, . "Should Investors Avoid All Actively Managed Mutual Funds? A Study in Bayesian Performance Evaluation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 18-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christopher S. Jones & Jay Shanken, 2002. "Mutual Fund Performance with Learning Across Funds," NBER Working Papers 9392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Andrew J. Patton, 2001. "Estimation of Copula Models for Time Series of Possibly Different Lengths," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-17, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2002. "Expropriation Risk and Return in Global Equity Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 8, Swedish Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173. [Downloadable!]
  11. William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "Re-emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 5906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Home bias and high turnover in an overlapping generations model with learning," Working Papers 2005-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Raman Uppal & Lorenzo Garlappi & Tan Wang, 2004. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 54, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  14. Klaas Baks & Andrew Metrick & Jessica Wachter, 1999. "Bayesian Performance Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 7069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Garlappi, Lorenzo & Uppal, Raman & Wang, Tan, 2005. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Parametric Portfolio Policies: Exploiting Characteristics in the Cross Section of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 10996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Garlappi, Lorenzo & Uppal, Raman & Wang, Tan, 2005. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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