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Re-emerging Markets

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Author Info
William N. Goetzmann
Philippe Jorion

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Abstract

Recent research shows that emerging markets are distinguished by high returns and low covariances with global market factors. These are striking results because of their immediate implications for the international investor. One key issue is whether these results may be attributed to recent emergence. Most of today's emerging markets are actually re-emerging markets, i.e. markets that attracted international attention earlier in the century, and for various political, economic and institutional reasons experienced discontinuities in data sources. To analyze the effects of conditioning on recent emergence, we simulate a simple, general model of global markets in which markets are priced according to their exposure to a world factor; returns are only observed if the price level exceeds a threshold at the end of the observation period. The simulations reveal a number of new effects. In particular, we find that the brevity of a market history is related to the bias in annual returns as well as to the world beta. These patterns are confirmed by long-term histories of global capital markets and by recent empirical" evidence on emerging and submerged markets. Even though these results can also be explained by alternative theories, the common message is that basing investment decisions on the past performance of emerging markets is likely to lead to disappointing results.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5906.

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Date of creation: Jan 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5906

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jorion, Philippe, 1985. "International Portfolio Diversification with Estimation Risk," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 259-78, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bailey, Warren & Chung, Y. Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Political Risk, and Stock Returns: Some Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 541-561, December. [Downloadable!]
  3. William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "A Century of Global Stock Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm53, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Geert Bekaert & Michael S. Urias, 1996. "Diversification, Integration and Emerging Market Closed-End Funds," NBER Working Papers 4990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Analyzing Investments Whose Histories Differ in Length," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  6. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Goetzmann, William N & Jorion, Philippe, 1995. "A Longer Look at Dividend Yields," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 483-508, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. " Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vladislav Kargin, 2003. "Value Investing in Emerging Markets: Risks and Benefits," International Finance 0309005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Klaas Baks & Andrew Metrick & Jessica Wachter, . "Should Investors Avoid All Actively Managed Mutual Funds? A Study in Bayesian Performance Evaluation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 18-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Gerald Kohers & Ninon Kohers & Theodor Kohers, 2006. "The risk and return characteristics of developed and emerging stock markets: the recent evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 737-743, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Malcolm Anderson, 2000. "Accounting History Publications 1999," Accounting, Business and Financial History, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 385-393, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Anthony W. Lynch & Jessica A. Wachter, 2008. "Using Samples of Unequal Length in Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," NBER Working Papers 14411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Andrew Patton, 2001. "Estimation of Copula Models for Time Series of Possibly Different Length," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-17, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2002. "Expropriation Risk and Return in Global Equity Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 8, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2006. "Simulating Stock Returns Under Switching Regimes - A New Test of Market Efficiency," CEPR Discussion Papers 5614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "A Century of Global Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 5901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Wolfgang Drobetz & Susanne Stürmer & Heinz Zimmermann, 2002. "Conditional Asset Pricing in Emerging Stock Markets," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(IV), pages 507-526, December. [Downloadable!]
  11. Aktham Maghyereh & Hiatham Al-Zuobi, 2005. "Free trade agreements and equity market integration: the case of the US and Jordan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 995-1005, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1997. "Analyzing Investments Whose Histories Differ in Length," NBER Working Papers 5918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2001. "Sovereign Risk and Return in Global Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Christoph Klingen & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Beatrice Weder, 2004. "How Private Creditors Fared in Emerging Debt Markets, 1970-2000," IMF Working Papers 04/13, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2002. "With a Bang, Not a Whimper: Pricking Germany's 'Stock Market Bubble' in 1927 and the Slide into Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 3257, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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