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A Century of Global Stock Markets

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Author Info
William N. Goetzmann () (Yale University, School of Management)
Philippe Jorion () (General)

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Abstract

The expected return on equity capital is possibly the most important driving factor in asset allocation decisions. Yet, the long-term estimates we typically use are derived from U.S. data only. There are reasons to suspect, however, that these estimates of return on capital are subject to survivorship, as the United States is arguably the most successful capitalist system in the world; most other countries have been plagued by political upheaval, war, and financial crises. The purpose of this paper is to provide estimates of return on capital from long-term histories for world equity markets. By putting together a variety of sources, we collected a database of capital appreciation indexes for 39 markets with histories going back as far back as the l920s. Our results are striking. We find that the United States has by far the highest uninterrupted real rate of appreciation of all countries, at about 5 percent annually. For other countries, the median real appreciation rate is about 1.5 percent. The high return premium obtained for U.S. equities therefore appears to be the exception rather than the rule. Our global databases also allow us to reconstruct monthly real and dollar-valued capital appreciation indices for global markets, providing further evidence on the benefits of international diversification.

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Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm53.

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Date of creation: 06 Feb 1997
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Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm53

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Jobson, J D & Korkie, Bob M, 1981. "Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 889-908, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1998. "Re-emerging Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm50, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Goetzmann, William N & Jorion, Philippe, 1995. "A Longer Look at Dividend Yields," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 483-508, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bansal, Ravi & Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1996. "A Monetary Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1135-71, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Goetzmann, William Nelson, 1993. "Patterns in Three Centuries of Stock Market Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 249-70, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Bodnar, Gordon & Dumas, Bernard & Marston, Richard, 2003. "Cross-Border Valuation: The International Cost of Equity Capital," Working Papers 03-3, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fabio Panetta & Roberto Violi, 1999. "Is there an Equity Premium Puzzle in Italy? A Look at Asset Returns, Consumption and Financial Structure Data over the Last Century," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 353, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B & Siconolfi, Paolo, 2005. "Distribution Risk and Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 5425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Alier, Max & Vittas, Dimitri, 2000. "Personal pension plans and stock market volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2463, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "Re-emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 5906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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