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A model of asset pricing under country risk

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  • Andrade, Sandro C.
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    Abstract

    I develop a formal model that could provide quantitative guidance to practitioners who use sovereign yield spreads in emerging market asset valuation. The model provides analytical formulas relating emerging market stock P/E ratios (and expected returns) to the corresponding average yield spread in sovereign bonds. In the model, sovereign yield spreads carry information about the likelihood of a negative regime change in an emerging market ("country risk"), under the common assumption that the regime change is associated with a hostile renegotiation of the country's foreign debt. In the model, country risk is priced because the regime change may be endogenously associated with bad states of the global economy. Data from emerging markets are consistent with some of the model's quantitative and qualitative predictions.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 4 (June)
    Pages: 671-695

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:4:p:671-695

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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    Keywords: Sovereign spread Asset pricing Emerging market discount;

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    Cited by:
    1. Adrien Verdelhan & Nicola Borri, 2010. "Sovereign Risk Premia," 2010 Meeting Papers 1122, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2013. "Sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4217-4225.
    3. Sun, David & Chow, Da-Ching, 2014. "Forgive, or Award, Your Debtor? - A Barrier Option Approach," MPRA Paper 44826, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jan 2014.
    4. Marcelo Bianconi & Joe A. Yoshino & Mariana O. Machado de Sousa, 2011. "BRIC and the U.S. Financial Crisis: An Empirical Investigation of Stocks and Bonds Markets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0764, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    5. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    6. Sandro C. Andrade & Emanuel Kohlscheen, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: the case of Brazil in 2002," Working Papers Series 211, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Umit Hacioglu & Hasan Dincer, 2013. "Evaluation of conflict hazard and financial risk in the E7 economies’ capital markets," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 79-102.

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